Does It Make Sense to Bet Favorites?
Posted on 6/23/2008 1:13:25 AM
By Pete Mitchell
One of the great things about betting the
horses is that you can do it your way…and win. Some people like betting horses
across the board (win, place and show)…others only bet their picks to win (all
or nothing). Some like to make multiple-race wagers (doubles, pick-3’s,
pick-4’s and pick-6’s), while others prefer to structure single-race exotic
tickets like exactas, trifectas and superfectas. Some players like to box horses, while others
use wheels and part-wheels, with one or two “key horses”. Sometimes you can
structure a bet around a horse you like…other times you can structure a bet
around a horse (usually a favorite) you don’t like (like those who had winning
exacta, trifecta and superfecta tickets in the Belmont leaving out Big Brown).
Whichever way you decide to attack a race,
you’re always looking for value. In other words, getting a return on your
investment that exceeds the chances of that investment paying off. That’s where
your handicapping skills come into play, which brings us back to the topic of
this article…does it make sense to bet favorites? If your analysis of a race
tells you that a horse would win the race 9 out of 10 times in this exact set
of circumstances, then anything better than odds of 1/9 on the tote board
represents value. For example, if a horse goes off at odds of 3/5, and your
handicapping analysis tells you that your horse would win this race 9 out of 10
times…you should bet the horse. The math works like this…your horse wins 9
times, paying $3.20 per race (profit of $1.20 per race for each $2.00 wager),
loses once for a loss of $2.00, for a net profit of $8.80 (9 x $1.20 = $10.80 -
$2.00 = $8.80). You’ve invested a total of $20.00, and your return is $28.80,
of which $8.80 is profit. You’ve turned a 44% profit! Even if your horse only
wins 7 of 10 such races, you’ve still eked out a net profit of $2.40, for a
profit margin of 12%.
Some people say, “I never bet a horse that
goes off at less than 2-1.” Well, what if you could bet Secretariat at 3/5
against a bunch of run-of-the-mill allowance horses at Philadelphia Park? Do
you think he’d beat them 9 out of 10 times? This example is a bit exaggerated,
but I think you get my point…there are situations that come up in horse racing
where you’ve got all the edges, and 3/5 is actually a bargain. If a price looks
too good to be true, you should double-check your handicapping analysis. But by
all means, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a favorite if you honestly
believe there’s value in the play.
You can use horses like this in a variety
of ways…whatever suits your betting style. Bet them to win, or use them in
exotics…they’ll return a profit in the long run, assuming your handicapping is
solid.
Pete Mitchell has been handicapping
horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for
many years, and came to BetOnline.com’s attention through multiple referrals
from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for
his horse handicapping opinion
and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career
winning record. Thoughts or questions? Email
Comments@BetOnline.com.
