Horse racing betting - Hello Broadway delivers partial payback
Posted on 11/3/2008 11:05:46 AM
By Pete Mitchell
Horse racing betting: Hello Broadway settles for second
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WHO: Thoroughbred Hello Broadway
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WHAT: Nashua Stakes (G3)
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WHERE: Aqueduct Racetrack
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WHEN: Sunday, November 2
On Friday I wrote about how much I liked Hello Broadway to win the Nashua Stakes on Sunday at the “Big A”. Things didn’t work out quite the way I had hoped, but there was a silver lining in Hello Broadway’s fast-closing second-place finish.
After being ignored on the tote board at 8.5-1 in his previous start (the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont), the horse racing betting public jumped on the bandwagon this time around, sending him off at an unappealing 2.40-1. No doubt many read the same articles I did, explaining that he wasn’t right prior to the Champagne but was training up a storm for the Nashua.
That’s one of the problems you’ll encounter when you follow stakes-caliber horses—there’s a lot more information available—to everyone! Nevertheless, I was hoping for a better price, strictly on the basis that his speed figures didn’t stand out in this group. In fact, several competitors boasted Beyers in the nineties, trumping his career best of 88.
As it turned out he was beaten Sunday by a horse, Break Water Edison, whom he had defeated by nearly seven lengths in the Champagne, on a day when he was far from his best. The good news was I did some shopping around on Saturday and found a head-to-head match-up featuring Hello Broadway vs. Royal Vindication.
Both horses were listed at 3-1 in the Morning Line, but Royal Vindication was favored in the head-to-head matchup at -141, with Hello Broadway at +125. In other words, for every $100 you risk on Hello Broadway your profit would be $125.
Royal Vindication was favored on the basis of his sharp form (two consecutive wins, including a minor stakes race) and ascending Beyer Speed Figures (67, 76, 90 and 94). It appeared to me, however, that the wrong horse was favored. In horse racing betting that’s called an overlay.
Hello Broadway struck me as the more talented individual, and the one more likely to improve with added distance. Royal Vindication was forwardly placed throughout, but when Hello Broadway moved outside a wall of horses at the top of the stretch, he unleashed a powerful rally that carried him past Royal Vindication by a neck at the wire.
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Pete
Mitchell, BetOnline.com Racebook Director, has been handicapping horses since
his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and
came to BetOnline.com’s attention through multiple referrals from industry
insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse
handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his
impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions? Email
Comments@BetOnline.com.
