Pete Mitchell Nails Cold Exactas
Posted on 8/4/2008 2:05:50 PM
By BetOnline Staff
Horse Betting - Winning Exactas
Pete Mitchell, regular contributor to BetOnline.com for thoroughbred horse racing, submitted the following article on Friday, August 1st. We’ll interject the results in red:
Saturday’s Filly Stakes Feature Pair of Amazons
By Pete Mitchell
The Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga and the Grade 2 Clement L. Hirsch Handicap at Del Mar feature two of the best fillies in training. 2007 2YO Filly Champ Indian Blessing is 3-5 in the morning line for the Test Stakes, for 3YO fillies, and the undefeated Zenyatta is listed at the same price against older fillies & mares in the Clement Hirsch. That’s great for fans of the sport, but makes it tough for bettors who are looking to make a score. Let’s analyze each race to see if we can extract some value out of these short-priced favorites.
Indian Blessing showed a new dimension in her latest start. After breaking slowly, she stalked the leaders on the far outside and drew off with authority to win the G1 Prioress by more than five lengths. She draws the outside in The Test, so jockey John Velazquez can place her where she’s comfortable and monitor the horses to her inside. Sweet Hope, who turned in a lifetime-best Beyer Speed Figure of 108 in winning a minor stakes at Delaware last out, should complete the chalk exacta. That was her first start for trainer Larry Jones, who has shown a deft touch with fillies and mares. She too has demonstrated that she can win on the front end or from off the pace. Bet a straight exacta, #6 Indian Blessing over #3 Sweet Hope.
Results:
Saratoga Race 10 – The Test Stakes
1st – #6 Indian Blessing
2nd – #3 Sweet Hope
$2 Exacta (6-3) paid $9.20
Zenyatta sports a perfect six-for-six record, but some bettors may perceive her to be vulnerable after her hard-fought win in the G1 Vanity Handicap last out. Don’t be fooled by that effort, however. She had to move early in that race because of a loose-on-the-lead Silver Z, who had opened up a 10-length advantage after the first half-mile. By contrast, there should be an honest, contested pace in this race, so Zenyatta can bide her time. 4-1 second choice Tough Tiz’s Sis has finished first or second in her last six starts, and should grab a minor award. Let’s try to beat her for second with 30-1 bomb Model, trained by the ever-astute Neil Drysdale. Model exits a winning effort vs. second-level allowance foes at Del Mar just 12 days ago, so she must be doing great for Drysdale to tackle these heavy hitters. She owns the best Beyer Speed Figure (89) over the Del Mar polytrack, and should be flying late. Play a one-number exacta with #8 Zenyatta over #2 Model.
Results:
Del Mar Race 9 – The Clement L. Hirsch Handicap
1st – #8 Zenyatta
2nd – #2 Model
3rd – #6 Tough Tiz’s Sis
$2 Exacta (8-2) paid $57.00
Pete Mitchell has been handicapping
horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for
many years, and came to BetOnline.com’s attention through multiple referrals from
industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his
horse handicapping opinion
and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career
winning record. Thoughts or questions? Email
Comments@BetOnline.com.
Nice going Pete! Keep up the good work.
