Racebook Betting – Nailing the Travers Day All-Stakes Pick 4
Posted on 8/23/2008 5:26:38 AM
By Pete Mitchell
Racebook Betting – All-Stakes Pick 4
Saturday’s All-Stakes Pick 4 at Saratoga will provide us with an interesting handicapping challenge, as well as the opportunity for a healthy score. The $1 Million Guaranteed Pick 4 will start in Race 8 with The Victory Ride Stakes (G3), followed by The Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2), The King’s Bishop Stakes (G1), and finally The Travers Stakes (G1).
As is most often the case on “big race” days, the payoffs are higher than normal, and multiple race wagers like the Pick 4 pay more than the corresponding parlay. Sometimes much more! Let’s look at the past four years. In 2007, the Pick 4 of Shakis ($12.60), La Traviata ($3.70), Hard Spun ($4.60), and Street Sense ($2.70) paid $83.50, compared to the parlay return of $72.20. In 2006, the Pick 4 of My Typhoon ($8.10), Ashkal Way ($3.40), Henny Hughes ($3.50), and Bernardini ($2.70) paid $58.00, nearly twice the parlay payoff of $32.40. In 2005, the Pick 4 of Leroidesanimaux ($3.40), First Samurai ($6.10), Lost in the Fog ($2.60) and Flower Alley ($8.00) returned $62.50, marginally better than the $53.80 parlay.
Look what happens, though, when the Pick 4 isn’t dominated by favorites, like in 2004. The combination of Nothing to Lose ($5.80), Smokey Glacken ($7.50), Pomeroy ($11.40), and Birdstone ($11.60) returned a whopping $1,314.00, compared to the parlay payoff of $719.00. The longest shot in that group was only 9-2!
Now, for the selections. In The Victory Ride, you can single the undefeated and unchallenged #5-Indyanne. She’s simply a beast. Her connections came here in 2005 and got the job done with the brilliant Lost in the Fog. She’s just as good. A single here will allow us to spread in the other three legs.
In The Bernard Baruch, let’s use #2-Thorn Song (possible lone speed), #5-Distorted Reality (trouble in last; distance suits), #6-Shakis (training well; won this race last year), and #7-Proudinsky (ignore Frankel at your peril).
Let’s go four deep again in The King’s Bishop, leaving out possible speed-duelers #2-Desert Key and #8-J Be K. We’ll use #1-Kodiak Kowboy (sharp; trainer Jones swears he won’t bounce; entrymate #1a-Lantana Mob not a bad throw-in), #5-Visionaire (could nail them all late), #7-Golden Spikes (trainer Wolfson is 3-for-3 in Grade 1’s at the Spa), and #10-I’m So Lucky (been beating softer with ease).
As for the Travers, there’s no standout, so whoever wins will pay a nice price. Let’s use #1-Tale of Ekati (needed his last), #2-Colonel John (Ky. Derby wasn’t that bad, neither was Swaps effort), #6-Cool Coal Man (Zito’s horses have a habit of rising to the occasion), #9-Mambo in Seattle (probable favorite; best bred; faster than Jim Dandy winner; very game competitor), and #11-Pyro (not crazy about him, but he finished well last out).
That’s it. A $1 Pick 4 ticket using 5/2,5,6,7/1,5,7,10/1,2,6,9,11 costs $80.00. Let’s hit it!
Make your plays at BetOnline.com, where you’ll receive full-track odds and generous rebates.
Pete Mitchell has been handicapping horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and came to BetOnline.com’s attention through multiple referrals from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.
