Belmont Stakes Betting – Something Smells (Part 1)
Posted on 6/16/2008 5:01:18 PM
By Pete Mitchell
Moments after reading Dick Jerardi’s insightful article entitled “Yes, Big Brown got bad ride” posted on DRF.com on June 11th, I received a call from a trusted friend and colleague who happens to be a horse racing industry insider. He alerted me to the fact that the Belmont Stakes Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta pools were gigantic (especially in comparison to the Daily Double, Pick Three and Pick Four pools which ended with the Belmont Stakes), yet the payoffs were minuscule.
When you consider that the first-place horse was 38.50-1, the second-place horse was 7.20-1, the horses that dead-heated for third were 34.25-1 and 28.75-1 respectively, and the undefeated Big Brown, at .30-1, was off all tickets, shouldn’t that have made for extremely high payoffs, with a limited number of winning tickets? Three of the top four finishers were the longest shots on the board in a field of nine! Also, where were the bridge jumpers who usually bet 1-5 shots to show?
When such a horse fails to hit the board, the show prices are usually astronomical. Not in this case however…the show prices were incredibly low given the circumstances.
The Exacta pool exceeded $11 million, the Trifecta pool exceeded $15 million, and the Superfecta pool exceeded $7 million. Yet the payoffs were as follows:
$2 Exacta 6-4 paid $659.00
$2 Trifecta 6-4-8 paid $3,703.00
$2 Trifecta 6-4-9 paid $3,954.00
$2 Superfecta 6-4-8-9 paid $48,637.00
$2 Superfecta 6-4-9-8 paid $47,309.00
Let’s assume there wasn’t a dead heat for third, and the order of finish was 6-4-8-9. The Trifecta would have paid $7,657.00 and the Superfecta would have paid $95,946.00. Factoring in track takeout (17.5% for Exactas and 25% for Trifectas and Superfectas), there were approximately 13,900 winning $2 Exacta tickets, 1,480 winning $2 Trifecta tickets, and 56 winning $2 Superfecta tickets! Given the odds of the horses involved, there haven’t been enough brilliant and/or lucky people since the dawn of time to come up with that number of winning tickets! Something stinks here!
The likeliest scenario is that an extremely well-funded individual or group of individuals boxed every horse in the race with the exception of Big Brown in the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta, and they weren’t $2 boxes! They were for many multiples of $2.
Tomorrow I’ll complete my analysis of this Belmont Stakes debacle, and pose a few questions…you can draw your own conclusions.
Pete Mitchell has been handicapping
horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for
many years, and came to BetOnline.com’s attention through multiple referrals
from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for
his horse handicapping opinion
and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career
winning record. Thoughts or questions? Email
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