Belmont Stakes Betting – Something Smells (Part 2)
Posted on 6/16/2008 5:36:39 PM
By Pete Mitchell
The individual or syndicate that I suggested in Part 1 may have bet an 8-horse Exacta Box, excluding Big Brown. Such a box would cost $112 (8 x 7 x $2 = $112). The profit for each $2 box comes to $547 ($659 - $112). It would make no sense to include Big Brown in this box, because any payoff with him first or second wouldn’t come close to covering the investment. So, what if this individual/syndicate played a $20,000 8-horse box, for a total investment of $1,120,000? The payoff would be $6,590,000, netting profits of $5,470,000. This would account for 10,000 of the approximately 13,900 winning tickets.
Let’s do the same exercise for the Trifecta and Superfecta. This person/syndicate may have bet an 8-horse Trifecta Box, excluding Big Brown. Such a box would cost $672 (8 x 7 x 6 x $2 = $672). The profit for each $2 box comes to $6,985 ($7,657 - $672). Let’s say this individual/syndicate played a $2,000 8-horse box, for a total investment of $672,000. The payoff would be $7,657,000, netting profits of $6,985,000. This would account for 1,000 of the approximately 1,480 winning tickets.
The same 8-horse Superfecta box, excluding Big Brown, would cost $3,360 (8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x $2 = $3,360). The profit for each $2 box comes to $92,586 ($95,946 - $3,360). Let’s say this individual/syndicate played an $80 8-horse box, for a total investment of $134,400. The payoff would be $3,837,840, netting profits of $3,703,440. This would account for 40 of the approximately 56 winning tickets.
Now, for the tally: An investment of $1,926,400 returns a profit of $16,158,440…a nice tidy ROI of 839%. This investment required no opinion on any horse in the race except Big Brown…that he would run no better than fifth. That an undefeated horse, whose prior accomplishments towered over those of his competition, would somehow lay the first egg of his career. How convenient that he received the ride from hell, and was pulled up, thus ensuring that he would fail to show up in any of the exotics!
Coincidentally, you have an owner who has a history of financial improprieties, a trainer who has a history of drug infractions, and a horse who has already been syndicated for a reported $50,000,000.
Although I’m not a big fan of the IRS, I’d like to know who the owners of these winning tickets are. They’re all “IRS” tickets, so the “lucky winners” have left a financial trail. Perhaps the management of Belmont Park could do a little digging for us.
For the time being, there’s a distinct odor emanating from the 2008 Belmont Stakes that makes horse manure smell like Chanel No. 5.
Pete Mitchell has been handicapping
horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for
many years, and came to BetOnline.com’s attention through multiple referrals
from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for
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