Bet on baseball - Which MLB second-half sleepers will soar, collapse
Posted on 7/17/2008 8:49:56 AM
By T.J. Kendrick
Bet on baseball
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Should the Brewers go from sleepers to favorites?
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Can the Marlins maintain their surprising pace?
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Will Tigers' bats counter their pitching problems?
With the All-Star break wrapped up, odds are a team or two will make a surprising run to the playoffs and possibly the World Series. But which teams are best equipped to make such a run, and which potential “sleepers” will falter down the stretch? Let's examine some favorites to rake in big bucks through World Series futures.
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers (52-43) are getting some action as a second-half favorite. That's a great pick. The recent acquisition of C.C. Sabathia gives the Brewers' rotation a lot of juice between him and Ben Sheets. That makes +1500 odds to win the World Series pretty appealing. Considering the Brew Crew's young, talented hitters are really starting to swing the bat well (leading the NL in runs in June), it's difficult not to shift them from “sleeper” status to contender or favorite in the National League.
There's whispers in the online betting community that the surprising Florida Marlins (50-45) are a solid long-shot baseball pick. My advice is to stay away. True, since the Marlins are just 1.5 games back in the NL East standings, and they appear in fine shape to take on an underdog persona and make a run at the division title. Those +3000 World Series odds will whet your appetite, too.
But while the Marlins have hit the hell out of the ball this season?they're fourth in NL home runs?the pitching is subpar at best. Florida has the worst ERA in the League at just under five runs a game. You don't make the playoffs with that kind of pitching, and there's no reason to believe the Marlins' young staff will turn it around in 2008.
In the American League, I love the Detroit Tigers (47-47) if you're looking at mid-season World Series futures. Presently, the Tigers are seven games out of the AL Central. They can certainly make that ground up in the second-half. Detroit's offense has been great, racking up the second-most runs in the AL. Don't expect a decline in the coming months, considering the talent spread throughout the lineup.
Like in Florida, pitching could be an issue. Detroit's 4.57 team ERA is ugly, but the team has enough tools to rectify the problem. Ace Justin Verlander (7-9) has already turned things around, winning his last five decisions. The season-ending injury to Jeremy Bonderman was costly, but this staff doesn't need to compete for Cy Young awards; it just needs to keep things from getting out of hand and let a dominant offense do its job.
That sums up my thoughts on second-half MLB sleepers. Of those teams, I like the Milwaukee Brewers best. If you want bang for your buck, take a flier on the Tigers.
Visit the BetOnline.com Sportsbook for the best odds, lines and props. And be sure to regularly visit the Bettor's Edge for tips to bet on baseball and make World Series futures picks.
T.J. Kendrick is the biggest baseball nut and a
brilliant MLB handicapper. His love of the game borders on obsession, and he
takes every chance he gets to make excellent predictions, frequently
contributing to industry handicapping sites as well as BetOnline.com. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.
