MLB futures - Sabathia, Harden trades swing balance of power in National League
Posted on 7/9/2008 11:56:52 PM
By T.J. Kendrick
Betting on World Series Contenders
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Are the Brewers true contenders now?
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Is Chicago a lock to win the NL?
Who would have bet on those whirlwind of a few days? You'll be as hard pressed to find as much hot action in baseball as when two aces, Clevland's C.C. Sabathia and Oakland's Rich Harden, were dealt in matter of days.
How does it affect the bigger picture? In Milwaukee's case, a lot. As of Wednesday, the Brewers were 50-40, leaving them four games out of first place in the NL Central (and trailing the Cardinals by half a game for in the Wild Card standings). Obviously, the Sabathia trade says “We mean business”, especially considering the hefty pitcher is a free agent at the end of the season.
It was a worthy risk for Milwaukee, which has +1600 odds to win the World Series. True, the Brewers had to give up some quality talent for a player that might walk in a two and a half months, but it will well worth it if the team can qualify for the postseason, something it hasn't done since 1982.
Considering the young talent pool the Brewers are already playing with?Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Cory Hart?it's a little easier to part with a prized prospect like Matt LaPorta.
Will the gamble pay off? I'm betting it does. Sabathia won his Brew Crew debut on Tuesday, giving up two earned runs in six innings against Colorado. Expect more of the same. The righty has quietly been excellent since a rough start, dropping his ERA a full run since May. Moreover, he'll face weaker competition in the NL.
In short, Milwaukee should now be considered the favorite to win the National League Wild Card.
In Chicago (+400 World Series odds), it's a matter of the rich getting richer. The Cubs already ranked third in the NL with a 3.85 ERA, and Harden gives them a terrifying 1-2 punch between him and Carlos Zambrano. Harden is 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA this season, and he's notched 92 strike outs in 77 innings.
Critics of the deal point to Harden's severe injury history, but that shouldn't matter this season. The Cubs didn't give up anything important from this year's team so, if Harden goes down, Chicago can rely on Ryan Dempster (10-3) and Ted Lilly (9-5).
Is Chicago a lock to win the National League pennant now? There's no guarantees, but it's tough to bet against the Zambrano/Harden/Dempster/Lilly quartet come playoff time. If Harden stays healthy, start feeling good about those Cubbies MLB futures. If he goes down, don't be surprised to see a suddenly red-hot Brewers team swoop in from behind to capture the NL Central and more.
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T.J. Kendrick is the biggest baseball nut and a
brilliant MLB handicapper. His love of the game borders on obsession, and he
takes every chance he gets to make excellent predictions, frequently
contributing to industry handicapping sites as well as BetOnline.com. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.
