NFL player futures - Handicapping NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Posted on 7/16/2008 10:47:16 AM
By Blake Frazier
NFL First Year Players to Bet on
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Is there an Adrian Peterson in this year's rookie crop?
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Which backs will get the most touches?
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Will any quarterbacks or receivers emerge as contenders?
With some NFL training camps opening as early as July 16, it's never too soon to review sports betting odds and handicap the potential NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
After last year's superb performance by Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, all eyes are on another runner, Oakland Raiders stable stud Darren McFadden.
McFadden, the fourth-overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, is the favorite to win the award at +300.
There are plenty of similarities between his current situation and Peterson's last year. Both play for anemic offenses, both have to share carries with a veteran, both play with inexperienced quarterbacks and neither are supported by a threatening passing game.
But one lingering difference is the fact that McFadden is working with a much weaker offensive line.
Running backs typically make the smoothest adjustment to the NFL, which is why a number of them are favored to win this award ahead of other rookie quarterbacks or wide receivers.
Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears (+600), Jonathan Stewart of the Carolina Panthers (+700), Kevin Smith of the Detroit Lions (+700) and Rashard Mendenhall (+1200) are next in line.
Forte and Smith are the most likely to see carries right away, but neither offers the talent of Stewart or Mendenhall. The latter two were first-round picks, while the former two were drafted in the second round and beyond.
Stewart and Mendenhall also offer some good value because they play for winning teams. Having a good season with a playoff team can often equal an amazing season on a bad team when it comes to this award.
There are a group of quarterbacks that might be worth a look, but quarterbacks are rarely good enough in their opening season to take home the award.
Matt Ryan might start for the Atlanta Falcons immediately, but he won't have much help around him. With a porous offensive line and a mediocre group of wideouts, don't expect him to make an impact until the last month of the season.
Joe Flacco will also see some early action with Baltimore Ravens, but he's very raw. Coming from a smaller school, Flacco will have a steeper learning curve.
There is a large contingent of wide receivers that might get into the mix for the award but two things are working against them: receivers typically take a while to develop and there were no first-round picks in this class. This group is considered one of the weakest in years and with so many good running backs to choose from, there isn't a shrewd pick among the wide receivers.
Bettor's Edge Pick: Jonathan Stewart (+700)
Blake walked onto his college football team and had a brief stint as an
assistant coach after he graduated. He brings a sharp mind to the world of
sports handicapping. Blake understands the nuances of the game that only
someone who has played would understand, and he was one of the few who gave the
Giants a chance against the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. Thoughts or
questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.
