Arlington’s Million Day Festival Pick-3 Looks Hitable
Posted on 8/8/2008 5:31:42 PM
By Pete Mitchell
Arlington Million Day Betting
On Arlington Million Day, the track is offering a Festival Pick-3 (with a guaranteed pool of $250,000) comprised of the card’s three Grade 1 races – The Secretariat, The Beverly D. and The Arlington Million. You shouldn’t have to spread too much in any leg to hit this exotic wager, as there are several horses in each race that are easy toss-outs for the top prize. Also, bear in mind that “big event” race days such as this generally offer higher payoffs, due to the inordinate amount of “square money” in the pools.
In the Secretariat, #6-Tizdejavu (6-5 morning line) will be favored based on his 3-for-3 record on the sod and top turf Beyer Speed Figures of 98 and 94. He’s likely the “lone speed”, and must be used. Foreign invader #3-Plan (5-2 morning line), from the powerhouse stable of Aidan O’Brien, with Johnny Murtagh aboard, appears to be the only threat to the favorite. Firestone homebred #2-Winchester (10-1 morning line) has kept very good company in Europe, and is bred to run all day, but his form is questionable and he’ll be getting blinkers and Lasix for the first time Saturday. Let’s use Plan and toss Winchester. The rest appear to be overmatched.
In the Beverly D., #3-Precious Kitten is listed as the morning-line favorite at 9-5. She’s very talented and as honest as they come, but the 2 ½-month layoff is a concern. She came out of her last race with a quarter crack, and although trainer Bobby Frankel says she’s doing great, you’ll note she hasn’t won off her last few breaks in training. #1-Dreaming of Anna (7-2 morning line) has the home-field advantage, and couldn’t be doing any better. I’m looking for her to lead the field on a merry chase, and hold off the closers. If you’re looking for an off-the-pace type, use #4-Mauralakana (3-1 morning line), trained by Christophe Clement, with Kent Desormeaux in the irons.
That brings us to the big one. While there are number of nice U.S.-based horses in this event, none strike fear in the opposition. I’ll opt for Euro-invaders #1-Archipenko (2-1 morning line) and #7-Mount Nelson (5-2 morning line). Both have tactical speed, both are Group 1 winners, both have won on left-handed courses (like Arlington), both come from top barns, and both are in terrific form.
The $2 Festival Pick-3 ticket looks like this: 3,6/1,4/1,7 (2 x 2 x 2 x $2 = $16). With Precious Kitten out of the Pick-3, your ROI should be decent, even if the favorites win the other two legs.
Note that in The Arlington Million, BetOnline.com pays full track odds up to a maximum net profit of $100,000, so now’s the time to fire away! Happy gambling!
Pete Mitchell has been handicapping horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and came to BetOnline.com’s attention through multiple referrals from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.
