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Everyone needs some tips before making their Kentucky Derby picks as it is the most analyzed horse racing event of the year. There are endless amounts of statistics and when you’re trying to narrow it down to the one magical horse that will win it, you need as much information as you can get.
There is a maximum of 20 horses in the field so at worst, the odds of your Kentucky Derby picks being right are 5%. But with some studying, you can increase your chances of picking the right pony and reeling in a big payout.
Here are some general tips for your Kentucky Derby picks:
Experience is a big key when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. It’s the big dance and let’s put it this way: some inexperienced contestants can come out with two left feet.
Rookies are just too much of a wildcard and given their track record, it’s best to stay away.
With up to 20 horses on the track, you have to race the perfect race to win. Especially when you consider how crowded this race can get on the rail.
If you’re going to put a team in your Kentucky Derby picks, it’s best to pick a jockey and a horse that have worked together before. A horse with a new jockey will not have the chemistry as a tandem that has been riding together for a while so stay away from horses with new jockeys.
How important is this one? To put it in perspective, there has been only one horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby when no racing at the age of two. That was Apollo back in 1882.
When you do the math, that means that there has been one such case in 135 attempts. That means that horses in this class have a 0.007% chance of winning.
In general, you must stay away from horses that did not race at age two and horses that have less than six races of experience. They just aren’t a good bet.
This is more of an obvious one but if you’re going to bet the Derby, you may as well pick a horse that has actually won something before. You might wonder how a horse who hasn’t won a stakes race before makes it to the Derby to being with, but you definitely should take a closer look at the horses who come in on winning streaks or have done a lot of winning before you put your money on a horse that has never won a stakes race.
The Kentucky Derby is a 1.25 mile (10 furlongs) track and if you’re going to be betting a horse that hasn’t even raced this length before, good luck to you. Endurance is one of the key components to this race and a horse who hasn’t raced this distance before will simply be too much of a wild card to trust.
Just as a stadium is important in regular sports or a court surface is important in tennis, the track is important in horse racing.
The Kentucky Derby is run at Churchill Downs every year and it’s important to see how your Kentucky Derby picks – or pick, if you’ve narrowed it down by then – works out on the track at Churchill Downs.
Keep a close eye on how the horse works out in the morning. If the horse doesn’t look good, don’t expect him to run well.
The dosage index is a mathematical index (or number) used by breeders of Thoroughbred races horses and by bettors for handicapping purposes.
The numbers are meant to quantify several of the horse’s characteristics and statistics into one number. It quantifies horse’s ability to run successfully or unsuccessfully at various distances and is obviously another stat to keep in your back pocket when you are making your Kentucky Derby picks.
How it is relevant to the Derby is it will give you an indication of how your pick will run in the mile and a quarter track at Churchill Downs. The ideal horse has a dosage index of 4.0.
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