• 
• Betting Round 1
• Sweet, Elite & Final Four
• Picking A Champion
• Seeding Statistics
  • Success Of Seeds By Round
  • No. 1 Seeds Can Be Misleading
  • Stick With Hot Teams And Brand Names
  • March Madness Seeding Facts
• Conference Tournaments History
  • ACC Tournament History
  • Big 10 Tournament History
  • Big 12 Tournament History
  • Big East Tournament History
  • Pac 10 Tournament History
  • SEC Tournament History

How To Bet The First Round

There’s that time of the month…and then there is that time of the year. In both cases, there can be plenty of madness.

As we reach the end of March and the Selection Committee has done its duties, the number one concern on all college basketball betting minds is how to fill out their NCAA Tournament bracket.

After listening to bracketniks, friends, analysts, stats, monkeys and dart boards, people will make their picks. But just crunching the numbers is also a great strategy.

Here is a list of the do’s and don’ts for the first round of the March Madness Tournament:

March Madness Betting Tip: Never Bet A No. 16 Seed

Here’s a simple one for: never bet a No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed.

A lot of bettors love their stats and love their trends. Sometimes they get excited when a team has won five or six in a row in a certain situation, well how’s this for a trend for you:

A No. 16 seed has never beat a No. 1 seed. That’s not five of their last six, that’s not 20 of their last 25, that’s never. A No. 16 has NEVER advanced to the second round, so don’t bet on it to happen.

Make sure your bracket disposes of all 16 seeds in the first round.

March Madness Betting Tip: The 5-12 History

Since the start of the 64-team tournament in 1985, each seed-pairing has played a total of 100 first-round games. Here are the results, which give you a clear indication of which upsets to pick:

• The #1 seed has beaten the #16 seed all 100 times (100%).
• The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 96 times (96%).
• The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 85 times (85%).
• The #4 seed has beaten the #13 seed 79 times (79%).
• The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 66 times (66%).
• The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 69 times (69%).
• The #7 seed has beaten the #10 seed 61 times (61%).
• The #8 seed has beaten the #9 seed 46 times (46%).

As you can see, the one nonconformist in the numbers is the 12-5 matchup.

The No. 12 seed upsets the No. 5 seed 44% of the time, which is a higher number than the No. 11 over the No. 6 and it is the biggest jump in the first-round matchups. While the No. 4 seeds and up win about 80% of the time, when you drop down to the No. 5 seed, there is an opening for the No. 12 seeds to cash in so keep that in mind when you are picking your first-round matchups.

March Madness Betting Tip: Consider The Vegas Point Spreads

The point spreads are essentially the market value, so it is always important to look at what the market is saying. And it’s not just the market, it’s the experts in Las Vegas who give you an insight into how they believe the first-round games should play out.

While they aren’t always perfect, they are a good tool to use in your research. Take a look through the first-round point spread and judge whether your picks are heavily against the grain or whether the experts and the market agree.

March Madness Betting Tip: Don’t Pick Too Many Underdogs

There is an NCAA Selection Committee, which is comprised of people who spends hours and days of coming up with the seedings. If we’re the amateurs, these guys are the absolute experts.

There are and will always be upsets in March Madness but don’t go overboard. Pick your spots – maybe a team that is playing at home, maybe a 12-5 matchup – but don’t go crazy.

While there is usually an upset in the first-round, the reality is that more favorites win than underdogs, so make sure your bracket reflects the statistics accordingly.

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