NASCAR Betting – Edwards favored in Johnson victory parade
Online betting: Johnson should close out Sprint Cup Chase
- WHO: 43 of NASCAR’s finest
- WHAT: The Ford 400
- WHEN: Sunday, November 16, 3:45 p.m. ET
- WHERE: Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, FL
- KEY STATS: Carl Edwards leads all active drivers with a 7.8 average finish in four races
- PICK: Kevin Harvick
The NASCAR betting season draws to a close this Sunday with the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway and, even though Jimmie Johnson essentially has sewn up the championship, the racing at this progressively banked 1.5-mile track is usually very exciting, proven by a couple of last-lap finishes. Carl Edwards is the NASCAR betting favorite this week, looking to continue a run of dominance for the Roush-Fenway Fords in an event sponsored by Ford, as Roush-Fenway’s Matt Kenseth won this event last season.
Edwards has NASCAR odds of +275 this weekend and his 7.8 average finish in four races is tops among active drivers. The No. 99 driver has certainly put the pressure on Johnson down the stretch, winning back-to-back races before finishing fourth last week at Phoenix. Edwards trails Johnson by 141 points in the standings, and would need a whole lot of help to reach Victory Lane and stage a huge NASCAR betting upset.
Edwards’ Roush-Fenway teammate, Greg Biffle, won this event the three previous years before Kenseth, and he has NASCAR odds of +400 as the all-time wins leader at this track. The No. 16 driver’s average finish of 12.7 should be better though, as “The Biff” either wins here or finishes outside the top 10. Consistency has always been a problem for Biffle and this track is a microcosm of his career.
Johnson comes in with offshore sportsbook odds of +550, and while the No. 48 driver has never won here, he has a solid finishing average of 13.4 and five top-10s in seven races at Homestead-Miami. For the last two years, Johnson has only needed to be conservative to wrap up the title here, and this weekend is no exception as he needs only a 36th-place finish to join Cale Yarborough as the only men to win three straight championships in NASCAR’s top series.
LEE-ROY’S PICK: With the championship in his grasp, offshore sportsbook players should stay away from Johnson this week as he will be more concerned with not getting caught up in wrecks. Edwards is the only person who can mathematically catch him, but he has virtually conceded the title race to Johnson.
There are numerous drivers this year who are winless, such as last year’s winner, Kenseth (NASCAR odds of +800), and Jeff Gordon (+1400). However, NASCAR betting has great value on Kevin Harvick with odds of +2800, and the No. 29 driver has a great average finish of 10.1 in seven races at Homestead-Miami (third among active racers).
Harvick has been one of the most consistent drivers all season long and, with three top-seven finishes in his last four starts, he has been knocking on the door to Victory Lane as of late. Bet on Kevin Harvick to take the checkered flag in the final race of the season and expect Jimmie Johnson to claim his third consecutive series title.
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Born in the betting capital of Las Vegas, Lee-Roy has grown to appreciate the likes of IndyCar and Formula 1 racing, but his first love is the high-speed ovals of NASCAR and he is a HUGE Tony Stewart fan. When it comes to motorsports handicapping, Buckles takes the checkered flag. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.
