Homestead Betting - Johnson clinches title, Stewart takes checkered flag in finale
NASCAR has come to the end of its sports betting season, and the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway has turned into the Jimmie Johnson Victory Parade. Johnson can clinch his record fourth straight title with a mid-pack finish, so he has no reason to go for the win. The checkered flag will instead go to a driver/owner that has exceeded all expectations this year.
| WHAT: NASCAR betting |
| WHEN: Sunday, November 22, 3:15 PM ET |
| WHERE: Homestead-Miami Speedway, Homestead, FL |
| KEY STAT: Fords have won five straight Ford 400s |
| PICK: Tony Stewart +1000 |
Johnson is the co-favorite at +600, although Homestead is one of the six tracks he’s never won at with a finishing average of 13.6, which includes five top-10s in eight races. Johnson showed why he is on his way to a fourth straight championship by bouncing back from his Texas wreck with a dominant win at Phoenix, leading 238 laps. The No.48 is usually just trying to stay out of trouble when he comes to Homestead so he can wrap up a title, and he needs to only finish 25th to clinch this week.
Homestead betting has Mark Martin as a co-favorite even though he’s never won at Homestead either, but you have to figure that he’ll be up on the wheel to cut into Johnson’s 108-point lead. Martin finished fourth at Phoenix, and he has five top-10s in nine trips to Homestead, but it appears as though he’s headed for his fifth runner-up finish in the championship standings.
Jeff Gordon and Greg Biffle come in at +800, and both are pretty good at Homestead. Gordon has eight top-10s in 10 races with a 9.9 average which puts him third behind last year’s winner Carl Edwards and Kevin Harvick. Biffle won this race from 2004 to 2006, but he’ll be looking to improve on last year’s 18th-place finish.
Sportsbook players should give Denny Hamlin a look with Homestead betting odds of +1200, and the No.11 driver has three top-three finishes in his last four starts, including a Martinsville win. Hamlin has a pair of top-fives in four races at Homestead, but he finished 13th in 2008. Still, the No.11 team has looked as good as anyone lately, and they have to be considered a challenger for next year.
Want to take a risk? Check out Harvick at +2200. The No.29 team has improved by leaps and bounds since the Chase began, and his 9.1 average is second only to Edwards. The entire RCR organization, which includes Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton and Casey Mears, has been better since they started getting ready for next year, and Harvick’s track at Homestead makes him one to watch for.
LEE-ROY’S PICK: You can count Johnson out. He says he’ll continue to be aggressive, but crew chief Chad Knaus will remind him of the big picture. To look at the finale winner, you must know that Ford has won six of the last seven Ford 400s here, including five straight by Roush-Fenway. However, Roush-Fenway has just three wins this year, from Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray, and they’ve never looked competitive, so their streak will end. This week’s winner is the guy who led the points during the regular season, and he won the first two races at Homestead in 1999 and 2000. Tony Stewart has had an amazing first year as a driver/owner, and he’ll wrap it up with his fifth win of the season. Take Tony Stewart’s Homestead betting odds of +1000.
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