Watkins Glen Betting - Johnson finally gets road-course win at The Glen

TONY STEWART +450
MARCOS AMBROSE +600
JEFF GORDON +600
JUAN PABLO MONTOYA +700
KYLE BUSCH +700
KURT BUSCH +1500
DENNY HAMLIN +1500
MARK MARTIN +1800
JIMMIE JOHNSON +2000
KASEY KAHNE +2500

It’s rare to get a three-time defending series champion as a good value pick, but that’s what you’ll find in this week’s sports betting lines when the Sprint Cup series heads to Watkins Glen International for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at The Glen on Sunday afternoon.

Watkins Glen Betting: Johnson adds to legacy

• Stewart, Gordon lead way with four victories at The Glen
  
• Road-course background helps out Ambrose, Montoya
  
• Hamlin would be solid darkhorse bet as well as Johnson

Stewart extended his lead to 197 points atop the standings with a tenth-place run at Pocono, and this was his ninth straight top-10. He’s returning to a place where he’s had an insane amount of success, posting four wins and eight top-10s in 10 trips to The Glen, including last year’s runner-up finish. His 5.7 average is second only to Marcos Ambrose, who’s only raced The Glen once in a stock car, so it’s no surprise that he’ll be the betting favorite with odds of +450.

Ambrose won last year’s Nationwide race, and finished third in the Cup race after starting at the back of the field, so he’ll definitely be one of the main contenders in your offshore sportsbook with odds of +600. He’s coming off a poor run at Pocono, but he’ll be near the front on Sunday. Ambrose finished third in the Sonoma road race earlier this year.

Jeff Gordon finished eighth at Pocono for his seventh top-10 in eight races, and he’ll be looking to improve on an uncharacteristically bad performance at The Glen in 2008, which he finished 29th. The No.24 driver is tied with Stewart with four victories here, and he leads all active drivers with nine road-course wins, so he has no problems with the right turns. Gordon has NASCAR odds of +600 this week.

Juan Pablo Montoya has finished second in the last two races, and as a former CART champion and F1 driver, Montoya definitely knows how to get around at road courses. In fact, his lone Cup win came at Sonoma in 2007. The No.42 driver finished sixth at Sonoma in June, and he’s got NASCAR odds of +700 as he heads towards the Chase.

Three drivers to watch out for are defending race-winner Kyle Busch (+700), JGR teammate Denny Hamlin (+1500) and Sonoma winner Kasey Kahne (+2500). Busch swept last year’s road races, but with the current form of the No.18 team, his odds may not be good enough. Hamlin is coming off an emotional win at Pocono, and he’s finished in the top 10 in all three of his trips to The Glen, along with a fifth-place run at Sonoma. Kahne was a surprise winner back in June, but his victory was the first time he’d finished in the top 10 in 11 road races.

LEE-ROY’S PICK: For all of his talent, Jimmie Johnson has never won on a road course, although he seems to be getting closer. The No.48 driver has four top-10s in seven trips to The Glen, including last year’s seventh-place run, and he came in fourth at Sonoma at June, although he had knock a couple of people out of the way (notably Kurt Busch) to do it.

Johnson’s 13th-place run at Pocono last week was more impressive than it looks as he was three laps down halfway through the race due to mechanical problems, but the No.48 team showed why they’re the three-time defending champions by overcoming the odds to rally to the top 15. They also desperately want to win on a road course, and with odds of +2000, you’ll never find such good value for the champion. Make Jimmie Johnson your NASCAR betting choice on Sunday.

For more NASCAR betting picks and tips, bookmark Lee-Roy in the Betting Edge at BetOnline.com.

Born in the betting capital of Las Vegas, Lee-Roy has grown to appreciate the likes of IndyCar and Formula 1 racing, but his first love is the high-speed ovals of NASCAR and he is a HUGE Tony Stewart fan. When it comes to motorsports handicapping, Buckles takes the checkered flag. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.