MLB Betting Trends - Rangers show their true face

If you follow MLB betting trends, you know that every team – including every first-place team – has its ups and downs throughout the year. There’s simply no way a team can go 162 games without hot streaks and cold spells. Thus, you can’t get too bent out of shape when offshore sportsbook contenders like the Phillies, Yankees or Red Sox get cold. But what about the surprising Texas Rangers?

MLB Betting Trends: Rangers’ slump is a sign of things to come

• Injuries are piling up, but they aren’t to blame
• Pitching staff is crashing back to Earth
• Power hitters were hot, now cold, but should bounce back somewhat

If you’re a Texas Rangers fan and you bet on sports, then you’ll like what you see when you glance at the American League West standings. Through Sunday’s games, the Rangers lead the division with a 37-31 record, good for a half-game lead over the Los Angeles Angels. The key to discovering MLB betting trends, though, is to dig for the stats you don’t see with your naked eye. Sure, the 37-31 record is nice for Texas, but it did most of its damage in May, when it went 20-8. Outside that hot month, the Rangers are 17-23, including 7-11 in June. So which Texas team is the real one – the April/June bottom dweller or the May powerhouse?

The knee-jerk MLB betting fans’ reaction is to blame the Rangers’ downward MLB betting trends on injuries. A closer look calls that possible cause into question, though. First off, there’s Josh Hamilton. After an MVP-caliber 2008, he wasn’t contributing much to the team before his injury. Even in the Rangers’ huge May, he batted just .237. He was driving in runs, but it’s not like he was the engine driving the Rangers’ offense. Starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy was 5-2 on the season before he hit the shelf, but he’s not such a high-impact player that he’s irreplaceable (as his 4.92 season ERA suggests).

What about All-Star in the making Frank Francisco? The closer is 12 for 12 in save opportunities but has two DL stints already. Is his absence the reason behind the Rangers slide? Doubtful. Fill-in closer C.J. Wilson has saved six of seven opportunities.

The Rangers’ slide ultimately boils down to two major problems. The first is a horrible swoon for the Rangers top hitters. Second baseman Ian Kinsler tore up the AL for a .332 average, 1.039 OPS and seven homers in April but has since hit under .250 for two straight months—not what you want from your leadoff hitter. Free swinger Chris Davis is smashing homers (13) but strikes out more than anyone in Major League history according to his pace; he’s already at an absurd 101 whiffs in 65 games. Even breakout star Nelson Cruz is hitting just .197 in June.

The offensive nosedive shouldn’t come as a surprise, as it was simply the law of averages correcting players’ numbers to match their career MLB trends. Thankfully, that also means the trend will swing back – Cruz is not a .197 career hitter, so he’ll get hot again.

Unfortunately, the news isn’t good for Texas’ pitching staff. It overachieved dramatically as the Rangers rose to the top of their division, posting the second-lowest team ERA for one month in team history. There’s no escaping the fact that McCarthy, Scott Feldman, Vicente Padilla and company are mediocre pitchers who call a hitter’s park their home. Even scarier: Kevin Millwood, who has been outstanding with his 2.62 ERA, has nowhere to go but down, as his career 3.99 mark suggests.

The deeper Angels are getting healthy and charging hard. Sportsbook players should recognize the Rangers’ slide as a definite trend, not a fluke, and expect them to slowly fade from the playoff race. Their hitting will keep them competitive enough once it rallies, though.

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Before his arm flamed out, Dale “Skip” Lalonde was famous for his high-90s heat and power at the plate. He retired young but never turned his back on baseball, earning the nickname “Skip” for his high-school coaching prowess. A true student of the game, he loves crunching the numbers when he handicaps baseball. Email Comments@BetOnline.com.