The Future of Sports Betting—Machine Predicts NBA Finals Outcome
Are machine-based algorithms the future of sports betting? We've witnessed some very large advances in technology in recent years, but will these advances eventually allow machines to accurately predict the odds? Should sportsbooks be worried that bettors may be gaining an unfair advantage?
It's not exactly “Big Blue”, the computer that once beat the world's best chess player, but thanks to a recently developed points system, bettors have a new edge to predict the outcome of basketball games. NBA statisticians and Lenovo Group Ltd. engineers have developed a point-analysis metric predicting the Boston Celtics will beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals.
The algorithm measures the play of Boston's top-five players when they share the court in the playoffs and pits it against the LA's top five players. The plus/minus stat says the underdog Celtics will prevail because their top players have a bigger effect on the outcome of games compared to the Lakers. Despite being favorites, Los Angeles trailed 2-1 in the series after three games (the Lakers are also 0-3 against the spread in the Finals).
The algorithm calculates an individual's productivity by awarding a “plus” when they score and a “minus” when scored upon. These figures are totalled to determine a group's collective effectiveness on the floor. Boston's top five—Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins—combine for a +79 playoff rating. The Lakers' combination of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Vladimir Radmanovic combines for a +66 rating, giving the C's a +13 advantage. The NBA's website even tracks the statistic throughout the regular season. That stat can be applied to individuals or any combination of players.
Bettors looking to get into future NBA action will be interested to know that in Game 3, the Lakers' top-five played roughly 10 minutes together, generating a +7 rating. Boston's top unit played nearly 13 minutes, producing a -11 rating. Los Angeles won the game 87-81.
Of course, the system fails to take into account several other factors the savvy handicapper might consider before trying to beat the odds—like how much juice back-ups can give its squad coming off the bench, how long those top-five individuals play together and previous playoff experience (Boston's top five had never played an NBA Finals game until this year, Bryant and Fisher, for example, have share six title rings between them).
The Lenovo Group says in the future it plans to pit teams from different generations against each other and predict who would have won. For example, if the 2008 champion could “play” one of the Lakers or Celtics' '80s champs. In the meantime, this new points system gives sports betters a new tool to predict NBA picks. Sportsbooks can rest easy for now, but the potential is there for “Big Blue” to have an impact on the future of sports betting.
Craig Parsons is an avid sports fan, but his true love has always been basketball. Too short to realize his dream of playing in the NBA, he did the next best thing? Sports betting and covering basketball for a living. Thoughts or questions?
