March Madness picks - Louisville leads top-heavy Midwest Region

If you tell people making their March Madness picks that the Midwest Regional bracket is “top-heavy” this year, they may scoff at you. Isn’t every bracket top-heavy? Well, the Midwest is a special case in that its top four teams – Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas and Wake Forest – are way ahead of their peers. The drop off between fourth-seeded Wake Forest, which held the national No. 1 rank earlier this season, and fifth-seeded Utah is the difference between contender and pretender. Let’s break down the Midwest Regional and decide who is for real among the 2009 March Madness picks.

March Madness picks: Midwest boasts several major contenders at the top

• Rick Pitino tries to take his fourth team to the Final Four
• Kansas defends its national title
• Michigan State could play for a championship at “home” in Detroit

CONTENDERS: No. 1 Louisville Cardinals, No. 2 Michigan State Spartans, No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks, No. 4 Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The “big four” of the Midwest all make for exciting sportsbook picks in this year’s March Madness betting, particularly because each of them was a major part of the national No. 1 discussion at some point this season.

Top-seeded Louisville is in good hands; Rick Pitino has taken three teams to the Final Four already and has a 35-12 lifetime record in March Madness. The Cardinals are one of the nation’s strongest defensive teams, keeping opposition scoring down and forcing lots of turnovers. To have a shot at the national championship, the “D” will have to remain elite, because Louisville lacks a true offensive superstar. Athletic, versatile swingman Terrence Williams is close, though, and a big performance in the tournament would go a long way for Louisville.

Some online betting pundits would place Michigan State in the “pretender” category; however, since the Final Four will be played at Ford Field in Detroit, the Spartans have a carrot dangling in front of them like no other team does. If forward Raymar Morgan is healthy enough to play a major role, Michigan State will be very competitive.

Naturally, we can’t forget about the defending champion Kansas Jayhawks; they’re an amazing story this year, having remained a powerhouse despite losing all five starters from last year’s winning team. Inexperience could be their Achilles heel. What about Wake Forest? The Demon Deacons were the kings of the castle earlier this year and look as scary as any No. 4 seed out there, boasting three players who could be NBA first rounders come June -- Jeff Teague, Al-Farouq Aminu and James Johnson.

SLEEPERS; No. 6 West Virginia Mountaineers, No. 10 USC Trojans, No. 12 Arizona Wildcats

Is it fair to call a No. 6 seed a sleeper? Given West Virginia’s Midwest competition, the label is warranted. The Mountaineers don’t score a ton but proved they can hang with the big boys by beating Pittsburgh on the road in the Big East tournament. USC is one of the hottest underdog March Madness betting picks around, lacking depth but fielding an athletic, physical group playing with confidence right now after winning the Pac-10 championship. Some online betting players don’t’ think Arizona deserved its bid, but it certainly has the talent to be that pesky 12-seed winner we always see in March Madness betting.

PRETENDERS: No. 5 Utah Utes, No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes

Utah’s RPI of nine is awfully difficult to justify given that only two – two!—of their opponents all season long were ranked at on the date when Utah faced them. If their perimeter shooting goes cold, they could be the first team upset among the March Madness picks. Ohio State’s time isn’t now; the Buckeyes are a young, relatively small team that needs time to develop. They’re not ready to emerge from the Midwest bracket.

WASHINGTON’S PICK: Louisville Cardinals

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Washington Tucker was practically raised at Rucker Park. Though a freak knee injury cost him a major college basketball scholarship, his “sixth-sense” on the hardwood has translated into a spectacular career in basketball handicapping. Email Comments@BetOnline.com.