Old Dominion vs Baylor Picks – Dunn, Carter fire Bears into Sweet 16

March Madness betting players watched Old Dominion knock off Notre Dame in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, using a zone against a Fighting Irish team that couldn’t knock down their three-pointers. They’ll probably try to do the same when they face Baylor on Saturday, but the Bears have a pair of guards that can light it up from deep, and after a quiet first game, they’ll break out in the second round.

• What: NCAA Basketball Betting
• When: Saturday, March 20, 5:45 PM ETT
• Where: New Orleans Arena – New Orleans, LA
• Key Stat: Baylor shot 39% from the three-point line during the season

The Old Dominion vs Baylor Storyline

No.11 Old Dominion delivered the first upset of the Tournament with a 51-50 win over Notre Dame, coming back from a six-point deficit at halftime using a stifling defense that is one of the most underrated in the country. The No.3 Bears pulled away from Sam Houston State in a 68-59 victory, and they used their size to their advantage. This is the first meeting between these two, and the Bears will be trying to follow up their first Tournament win since 1950.

Offensive Matchups

The Monarchs aren’t an offensive juggernaut by any means, shooting 41.7% from the floor, and they were just 3-of-13 from the three-point line. Frank Hassell led the way with 15 points for Old Dominion, who take care of the ball, but they’re a team that tries to deliberately work a good shot, making every possession count. They’re not going to take a lot of threes, so the Bears will try to keep them outside.

Ekpe Udoh had 20 points for the Bears, as their guards, LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter, were kept quiet with a triangle-and-two defense. But Sam Houston State was no match for Udoh, whose offensive game is catching up to the defensive end, and it could make him a lot of money at the next level. The Bears will have to improve their three-point shooting though, as they were just 5-of-20 after shooting 39% from beyond the arc this season.

Defensive Matchups

The Monarchs have a chance for the sportsbook upset because of their defense and their ability to hit the boards. Even though the Monarchs were outrebounded by Notre Dame, they’re still third in the country on the glass, and they held a good-shooting Notre Dame team to 35.6% from the field. A lot of this is due to familiarity, as 10 of their top players returned to campus this season.

Udoh added 13 boards and a pair of blocks for Baylor, who were ninth in field-goal defense, and they held Sam Houston State to 33.8%, including 6-of-31 from three-point land. In Udoh, the Bears have a guy they know will swat any unsuspecting shots, or at least alter them, and it allows the guards to take more risks. As we said above, Old Dominion doesn’t shoot the trey that well, so look for Udoh to be at the heart of a zone.

Injuries

Both teams come in with a clean bill of health in this contest, and neither had to go to overtime to get here, so they should be pretty fresh.

Betting Prediction: Old Dominion vs Baylor Picks

The Bears come in as a 4-point favorite in their first meeting with the Monarchs, who played a collapsing zone on Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody, and they may try to do the same to neutralize Udoh, as they don’t have anyone who can match up against him physically. But then they’re playing with danger as Dunn and Tweety Carter can knock down their three-pointers. Carter in particular will want to have a better game than he did against Sam Houston State, as he is a New Orleans boy who is coming back home. The Bears are more disciplined than Notre Dame are, and they have a better coach in Scott Drew who will find a way to counter the scrappy Monarchs.

WASHINGTON’S Pick: Bears -4

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