Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga Betting Odds – Gael Force Winds?

In politics, there’s a saying: “Better to vote for the devil you know than the devil you don’t know.” While it’s true that Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are both Catholic schools who would never want to be associated with evil, what’s true is that their Thursday night matchup is a battle between a team that is known, and a team that is unknown. If you want to succeed in sports betting, it always helps if you can get a precise feel for the nature of competition. Let’s take a larger look at this contest between the homestanding Bulldogs and the visiting Gaels.

• What: NCAA basketball betting
• When: Thursday, February 11th, 11:05 PM ET
• Where: McCarthey Athletic Center – Spokane, WA

Key Stat: Gonzaga hasn’t lost a conference home game since February 13, 2007 (Santa Clara)

The Storyline – Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga betting odds breakdown

Sportsbook odds are not likely to lean with Saint Mary’s in this game. Last year’s Gaels – with guard Patty Mills around to accompany big man Omar Samhan – were much more formidable than this year’s team. Yes, coach Randy Bennett’s club is 21-3, but only because of a tissue-soft schedule inside and outside the West Coast Conference. Saint Mary’s played three power conference teams in the November/December non-conference portion of its 2009-2010 slate. The Gaels did beat a lousy Oregon team, but they lost at home to nationally-ranked Vanderbilt and dropped a neutral court clash to Southern California, which is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament but would have had a great chance of making the field of 65 if it had not been barred from the competition.

In West Coast Conference action, the story has been the same. Of the eight teams in the league, five have losing records within the conference. Of those five teams, only Loyola Marymount – at 12-12 – does not have an overall losing record (and that’s with a .500 winning percentage; not exactly impressive). Saint Mary’s College basically has a great record because it hasn’t played anyone of note. The best win on SMC’s slate is a Jan. 16 win over a Portland team that’s third in the WCC. In order to prove its worth, Saint Mary’s – who lost at home to Gonzaga on Jan. 14 – needs to knock off the big dog in the conference. Without a signature achievement, there’s no way SMC will be able to become an at-large participant in the NCAA Tournament. If SMC loses this game in Spokane, Wash., the Gaels will only be able to make the Big Dance if they win the WCC Tournament in early March.

On the other side of the divide stands Gonzaga, a proven commodity in the college basketball world. This is not a Final Four or an Elite Eight team, but it’s certainly a good bet to win one tournament game and maybe two. The Bulldogs annually play tough games against big names in the sport. Just this past Saturday, coach Mark Few’s team went into a hostile environment and pulled out a tough 66-58 win at Memphis. While it’s true that Memphis isn’t what it used to be now that former coach John Calipari is at Kentucky, that win over the Tigers was still impressive. Gonzaga showed poise on the road against an opponent that desperately needed to win. If Saint Mary’s has played soft opponents, Gonzaga has challenged itself this season.

Offensive Matchups – Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga betting odds breakdown

The Gaels average roughly three more points per game than the Zags do, posting 81.4 points to 78.3 for Gonzaga. However, as mentioned above, Gonzaga has played tougher foes. Duke, Wisconsin, Cincinnati and Illinois are just some of the non-conference opponents the Bulldogs have battled this year. It’s true that Gonzaga can hoist threes instead of running its halfcourt sets, but Matt Bouldin and Elias Harris are dynamic athletes that Saint Mary’s will struggle to defend.

Betting Edge: Gonzaga

Defensive Matchups – Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga betting odds breakdown

Saint Mary’s allows about two fewer points per game – 66.3 to 68.2 for Gonzaga – but again, the Gaels have not challenged themselves the way the Bulldogs have. A 10-point differential would tell a different story, but a two-point gap in defensive points-per-game totals suggests that the Zags are slightly better at this end of the floor.

Betting Edge: Gonzaga

Notable Injuries – Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga betting odds breakdown

There are no notable injuries at this time.

Betting Edge: Even

Betting Prediction – Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga betting odds breakdown

Saint Mary’s is the unknown team with something to prove. Gonzaga is the proven winner playing on its home court. This isn’t a tough call. The Zags should zig around the Gaels and storm to victory in Spokane.

Craig’s Pick: Gonzaga

For more sports online betting tips and articles, check out the BetOnline.com Betting Edge daily.