NFL football betting - Jets host Dolphins in crucial AFC East matchup
Betting on sports: Fighting for the AFC East title
- WHO: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-2.5)
- WHAT: NFL football betting
- WHEN: Sunday, December 28 at 4:15 p.m. ET
- WHERE: Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ
- KEY STATS: Dolphins are 9-5 against the spread vs. teams with winning records over the last three years; Jets are 4-6 when favored this season
- PICK: Dolphins
NFL betting fans couldn’t have scripted this one better. Chad Pennington and the surprising Miami Dolphins (10-5) travel to the Meadowlands to face the Jets (9-6), Pennington’s old team. If the Dolphins win, they clinch the AFC East title. If the Jets win, they’ll still need some help from New England and/or Baltimore, but they could win the division too. The loser will have to watch the NFL playoffs on TV, just like online sports betting fans.
Sportsbook odds favor the Jets, who are 5-2 at home, by 2.5 points. Why not, right? After all, the Jets have won five straight meetings with the Dolphins. Aging Brett Favre loves to work miracles, so online betting players will surely have a tough time betting against the future hall-of-famer. It would almost seem sacrilegious to bet online against Favre at home in wintery weather.
But wait. Yeah, the Jets were out west in Seattle last week, but it sure was snowy, wasn’t it? And Favre sure looked awful, didn’t he? So maybe he isn’t the winter warrior he once was. Maybe his age is finally starting to show.
Looking closer, Favre has been nothing short of terrible over the last four games. His ugly stat line includes one touchdown, six interceptions, a 57.8 completion percentage, 194.5 yards per game, a 58.2 passer rating and a partridge in a pear tree. Well, more like a lump of coal for Jets fans’ stockings. Anyone making NFL Week 17 picks should tread carefully.
Favre and the Jets have lost three of four, and a major reason for that is turnovers. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have beaten NFL spreads all year by forcing turnovers and never turning over the ball themselves. Despite having the arm of a 10-year-old girl, Pennington, who’s thrown just seven INTs all year, has the Dolphins’ offense rolling. In fact, his stat line over the last four games is the reverse of Favre’s: six TDs and one INT.
Dolphin detractors and NFL betting fans alike may think it’s always a bad idea to bet on a warm-weather team playing on the road in December, but no one can ignore that Pennington played at the Meadowlands himself for the better part of eight seasons. His winter-weather history isn’t as magical as Favre’s, but he’s been in these conditions before.
Online sports betting fans likely realize that both the Jets and Dolphins run the football quite well and both teams also stop the run quite well, so they’re essentially a wash in that respect. That means the passing game will be the deciding factor on Sunday. While each squad struggles against the pass – the Dolphins are 25th, the Jets are 29th – the advantage still goes to Miami. They simply don’t turn over the ball, whereas Favre is dishing it out to opposing teams like Jolly Old St. Nick these days. The Dolphins are tied for ninth in the NFL with 15 picks this year, so they have a good shot to snag a ball or two on Sunday.
STAN’S PICK: Sure, the Jets have the home field advantage, but the Dolphins’ road record (5-2) is the same as the Jets’ home record. They’re the hotter team heading into Sunday and the younger, more disciplined Pennington has something to prove. Bet online for Miami to upset New York and beat the Dolphins vs Jets spread. Superstitious NFL betting fans may feel strange going against Favre, but he’s finally lost the magic.
For more Dolphins vs. Jets betting and NFL Week 17 spreads, visit the BetOnline.com sports book.
Stan Simmons first tasted football through the college game, but his football handicapping has strictly focused on the professional sport. Not many people devote as much time to the NFL as Simmons. For six days a week he works, labors and handicaps the sport, and on the seventh he rests as the games play out. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.
