Bengals vs Browns Odds - Desperate Browns will push Cincy harder than expected

The Bengals vs Browns odds were supposed to be the Toilet Bowl, weren’t they? Every NFL betting fan knew the Browns would struggle, but many expected the Bengals to do the same. Suddenly, Cincy has wins over Green Bay and Pittsburgh and is one fluke touchdown against Denver away from being 3-0. Are they primed to massacre Cleveland?

Bengals vs Browns Odds: Bengals -5.5 (Total: 38)

• WHAT: NFL betting
  
• WHEN: Sunday, October 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
  
• WHERE: Cleveland Browns Stadium in Cleveland, OH
  
• KEY STAT: Browns rank 32nd in NFL in total defense, 30th in total offense
  
• PICK: Bengals to win; Browns +5.5 to cover; under 38

Bengals vs Browns odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The Bengals may be the AFC’s biggest surprise team; the Jets at least had some online sports betting experts’ attention entering the season because of Rex Ryan’s defensive influence. The Bengals defeated giants in consecutive weeks, but is there a chance they get overconfident and look past the Browns? Cleveland is in desperation mode; new head coach Eric Mangini is rumored to have already lost the room. Maybe they can ride the home crowd and grind out an inspired defensive performance.

Bengals vs Browns odds maker breakdown: Offense
Is it even legal to call what the Browns have an “offense”? It’s anyone’s guess as to which quarterback starts for the Browns in Week 4, but Mangini seems to have more confidence in Derek Anderson than Brady Quinn right now. Anderson at least has a 29-touchdown season under his belt and had a good rapport with drop-prone Braylon Edwards in the past. Regardless, moving the ball will be a chore for Cleveland; the Browns rank dead last in the NFL in total offense, averaging 218 yards per game. They’re equally ineffective passing and running, though slasher Jerome Harrison can pull a big play out of his hat once in a while.

The Bengals aren’t setting the world on fire but, let’s remember, they faced the Broncos’ top-ranked defense plus Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Carson Palmer has a decent group of wideouts at his disposal and Cedric Benson has been a revelation running the football every week.

Betting Edge: Bengals

Bengals vs Browns odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Bengals can be passed on but they’ve stuffed the run pretty well and they’ve at least done a good job getting to the quarterback. Antwan Odom, who has a hilarious seven sacks through three games, should terrorize Quinn or Anderson. The Browns can’t stop anyone; they’ve allowed the most points in the league, they have zero interceptions and they’ve forced one fumble.

Betting Edge: Bengals

Bengals vs Browns odds for total: 38
So far, the Bengals are winning as much with defense and clutch play as anything else, so they may not explode on Cleveland. Also, don’t be surprised if the Browns “D” gives its best effort of the season so far, desperate and playing at home. This game will be tighter than people expect.

Pick: Under 38

Bengals vs Browns odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
The Browns could use Andre Smith, as Carson Palmer has eaten seven sacks through three games, but it doesn’t appear that he’ll return any time soon. Jamal Lewis is questionable to start this week with his hamstring problem. While many experts would think Lewis sitting is a blessing, Harrison and James Davis haven’t elevated their play in his absence, so the Browns actually miss Lewis.

Betting Edge: Bengals

Bengals vs Browns betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
There’s no real reason why the Bengals should lose this game against an awful Browns team. However, this is the NFL, where sportsbook players must expect the unexpected, and we are talking about the Bungles here. I think Cincy will win – barely. The Browns will play their hearts out and keep the game close enough to beat the spread.

STAN’S PICK: Bengals to win; Browns +5.5 to cover

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Stan Simmons is one of BetOnline.com's NFL experts.