Bills vs Dolphins Odds - Fish will run their way to victory

Ah, the Bills vs Dolphins odds. Few rivalries are better in online sports betting today. Better yet, we can expect more passion than normal this week. The Dolphins are 0-3 and the Bills are 1-2, so there will be oodles of desperation in Miami. Which of these hard-luck squads will climb back into the AFC East hunt?

Bills vs Dolphins Odds: Bills -2 (total: 36.5)

• WHAT: NFL betting
  
• WHEN: Sunday, October 4, 4:05 p.m. ET
  
• WHERE: Land Shark Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL
  
• KEY STAT: Bills allowed 126 rushing yards to Pierre Thomas in second half last week
  
• PICK: Dolphins +2

Bills vs Dolphins odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The Bill/Dolphins rivalry is a storyline on its own, but there are other undercurrents to this matchup. Trent Edwards and the Bills’ passing game are feeling the heat. No one is calling for Edwards’ job yet, but his inability (or reluctance) to throw deep minimizes Terrell Owens’ and Lee Evans’ effectiveness. Can Edwards finally appease his unhappy receivers? For the Dolphins, the Chad Henne era begins with Chad Pennington likely lost for the season with another shoulder injury.

Bills vs Dolphins odds maker breakdown: Offense
Statistically, these two teams are quite similar offensively so far this season. Both teams are running wild – especially Miami, which averages an AFC-best 161.3 yards per game. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are flourishing as a tandem; Fred Jackson has been the Bills’ best player through three weeks and will retain an important role in their offense even with Marshawn Lynch returning this week.

The Bills should have a quarterback advantage in theory, but Edwards has to find a way to throw deep. Against a weak Miami pass defense, he should have some success. Chad Henne is a wildcard as a new starter but he has a much stronger arm than Chad Pennington and thus could make better use of Ted Ginn Jr. Miami’s slight running edge and Buffalo’s slight passing edge combine to make the offensive matchup a sportsbook draw.

Betting Edge: Draw

Bills vs Dolphins odds maker breakdown: Defense
Both teams have been inconsistent so far. The Bills are allowing boatloads of passing yards yet somehow neutralized Drew Brees and the Saints’ aerial attack last week. Miami’s run defense has been stellar but it keeps getting torched through the air; Gibril Wilson looks like a bust and Vontae Davis has lots of learning to do.

I give a slight NFL betting edge to the Dolphins; playing at home, they’ll be fired up. Joey Porter and Jason Taylor should dominate the porous O-line, which allowed four sacks to New Orleans in Week 3. That should cause major problems since Jackson may have trouble against Miami’s stout run defense too.

Betting Edge: Dolphins

Bills vs Dolphins odds for total: 36.5
Neither team is set up to score a ton this week. The Dolphins may be conservative with Henne and will likely keep the ball in Brown and Williams’ hands as they chew up clock. The Dolphins will hurry Edwards all day and could bottle up Jackson, so this shouldn’t be a high-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 36.5

Bills vs Dolphins odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Porter is battling a hamstring injury but isn’t expected to miss any game time this week. Naturally, the Dolphins have an adjustment period ahead with Chad Henne stepping in as the starter under center. The Bills have lost Leodis McKelvin indefinitely to a broken leg but Miami’s injury woes are more significant.

Betting Edge: Bills

Bills vs Dolphins betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Optimists were pleased with Buffalo’s handling of Brees last week, but pessimists saw major red flags when Pierre Thomas absolutely tore them apart on the ground and practically beat the Bills himself in the second half. The Dolphins will run wild and use the wildcat offense on and off; they’ll control the clock, tire out the Bills and help get Chad Henne his first NFL win.

STAN’S PICK: Dolphins +2

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Stan Simmons is one of BetOnline.com's NFL experts.