Lions Saints Betting – Saints Fail To Cover At Home For First Time In 2011

New Orleans’ online betting record at home has been immaculate as they head into this week’s meeting with Detroit at home, but the Lions are a dangerous team to bet against when it comes to this large spread and even though they shouldn’t win outright, Detroit should have enough to cover at the Superdome.

What: NFL Betting
When: Sunday, December 4th, 8:20 PM ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Pick: Detroit Lions +9

Why Bet On Detroit Lions (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS)

The Lions showed they weren’t quite ready for primetime in a 27-15 loss at home to Green Bay on Thanksgiving, and they were beaten all over the field. Offensively, the Lions committed three turnovers, all of which came on picks by Matt Stafford, who was 32-of-45 for 276 yards and a score on the day. The Lions killed themselves with mistakes as they also picked up 11 flags, moving the chains for the Packers four times due to penalties, and the biggest came from defensive lineman Ndamokung Suh, who was ejected for stomping on a Packer and is now suspended for two games because of his history. Detroit actually outgained the Packers 409-349 and kept them in control as much you can with Green Bay, but they shot themselves in the foot over and over again, had a horrible third quarter in which they were outscored 17-0 and a lot of Detroit fans and backers were sent home unhappy.

Running back Kevin Smith (ankle) went down early in the game and the Lions may have given him too much work after he was just re-signed three weeks ago. Safety Louis Delman (knee), cornerbacks Chris Houston (knee) and Brandon McDonald (knee) were all held out of practice earlier this week, so watch the injury reports and of course, Suh (suspension) will be out. After a great start, the Lions have fallen down the NFL betting ranks and they’re playing like a team that isn’t used to success. Even if they don’t win, Detroit needs to play a solid game, minimizing mistakes and most importantly, stay disciplined.

Why Bet On New Orleans Saints (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS)

Drew Brees put on a show in a 49-24 slaughter of the New York Giants on Monday night, going 24-of-38 for 363 yards with four touchdowns, and he also ran one in for a score in a huge night. You could argue that the Saints losing Brees would be similar to Indianapolis losing Peyton Manning, although the Saints actually have a running game, which racked up 205 yards against the Giants. The defense gave up 465 yards, but they forced a couple of turnovers; still, the performance would have been better if they didn’t give the Giants five first down because of penalties (New Orleans had 11 penalties in all). But this night was all about Brees, who has to be one of the top three quarterbacks in the league and even though Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is probably No.1 right now, Brees is actively jockeying with New England’s Ton Brady for the second spot. Brees put the wood to the New York defense, toying with them at some points and they’re deadly at the Superdome, where they are a perfect 5-0 ATS.

Linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee) is still out, but the Saints have been getting by with Jo-Lonn Dunbar and Vilma may not even get his spot back when/if he returns this season. Otherwise, the Saints are a healthy team and ready to roll to the NFC South title behind Brees, who is on another level this year. The Saints have a running game where they can rotate players in and out, which opens things up for Brees. The defense is ranked 25th, but as long as Brees is cooking, it doesn’t matter how they do and it looks like the Saints are heading towards an NFC title-game date with the Packers, who beat the Saints 42-34 in Green Bay in Week 1.

How It Will Play Out

NFL betting odds have the Saints as a 9-point favorite at home, where they’re 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five meetings since 1993, with three games falling under the posted total. There should be a lot of points in this game as the Saints’ defense can be attacked through the air, and the Lions may be going into this game with a shorthanded secondary (and no Suh), which puts them behind the eight-ball.

As we said, the Saints have a perfect ATS mark at home, while the Lions are 3-1-1 ATS on the road and this is the scariest backdoor cover of the weekend. The Lions can keep up with the Saints, although the defense is too leaky to pull out the win. Add in a long rest for the Lions and a short week for the Saints, and we’re taking Detroit to cover a large sports betting spread in New Orleans.