Super Bowl Totals Betting – Expect Hard-Hitting, Low-Scoring Affair on Sunday
Sports betting players have been wagering on totals since the beginning of time, and Sunday’s Super Bowl will be no exception as the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers clash in Dallas. Many players will figure there will be a shootout, just like the last time these two teams faced off, but we’re banking on the defenses to steal the show this weekend.
- What: NFL Betting When: Sunday, February 6th, 6:00 PM ET Where: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX Pick: Under 44.5
The last meeting between the Steelers and Packers took place on December 20th, 2009, at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, when Ben Roethlisberger threw a 19-yard pass to Mike Wallace for a score on the final play of a 37-36 victory for the Steelers. The teams combined to score 35 points in a wild fourth quarter, and the numbers from this game are truly staggering: the offenses combined for 973 yards (436 for Green Bay, 537 for Pittsburgh), 46 first downs, and most of those came on the arm of the quarterbacks. Roethlisberger passed for 503 yards and three touchdowns, while Green Bay counterpart Aaron Rodgers threw for 383 yards and three scores. There were three players with 100 yards or more in receiving yards, and neither team committed a turnover. It was a very impressive offensive performance on both sides, but we’re also certain that Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin and Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy weren’t happy with their defenses.
In five meetings since 1992, two of the meetings between these two have gone under the posted total, along with a push. During the regular season, nine of Pittsburgh’s 16 games went under the posted total, while Green Bay was one of three teams, along with the Washington Redskins and St. Louis Rams, who had 10 games so under the posted total. In the playoffs, two of Green Bay’s three games have gone under the posted total, while both of Pittsburgh’s games have gone over, which is surprising as they were against two very good defensive teams in the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets.
We’re betting on the under for the posted total of 44.5 points on Sunday, as both defenses have a lot of playmakers who are capable of taking over a game. The last three Defensive Players of the Year have come from these two teams, starting with this year’s winner and Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu, and the best set of linebackers in the NFL, who are powered by 2008 winner James Harrison. Green Bay is led by cornerback and 2009 winner Charles Woodson, while the linebackers are paced by Clay Matthews, who many feel should have won the DPOY award this year. Green Bay’s B.J. Raji is quickly emerging as one of the best nose tackles in the league, while Pittsburgh’s Casey Hampton is already among the league’s elite. If the Steelers have an edge anywhere, it’s at linebacker, where James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons and Lamarr Woodley join Harrison in a group that can do it all, while Green Bay’s advantage comes at the back, especially at the corners where Tramon Williams and Sam Shields have stepped up to give Woodson some help. The 3-4 systems with a lot of blitzing are very similar, and some NFL betting players will remember that Green Bay’s Dom Capers coached in Pittsburgh from 1992 to 1994 as the defensive coordinator, while current Steelers coordinator Dick LeBeau was the secondary coach at the time (current Cincinnati Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis was the linebackers coach), and both are credited as the pioneers of the zone blitz. Last year was Capers’ first full season in Green Bay, where he switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4, so the players were still getting used to the system, while Pittsburgh just had a bad season, which are possible reasons for last year’s shootout.
We think both defenses will be out to prove that the 37-36 game was a fluke, and we think Capers and LeBeau will cook up some things that neither offense has seen before, which is another reason we’re banking on the under on Sunday. One final stat: the Steelers were first in the league in points allowed during the regular season with 14.5 points, while the Packers were second with 15.0 points. Look for the defenses to take over, and go with the under in your online betting book.
