“Under” the way to go for Super Bowl totals
- Super Bowl total betting: great offense and defense colliding
Super Bowl betting is still on the tip of everyone’s tongue as we approach the big game on February 1st, 2009 and, while everyone is analyzing which side to play, it’s time to examine the Super Bowl XLIII total.
The total for Super Bowl 43 betting purposes is sitting at 46.5, which is down half a point from the opening line of 47.
Both the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers have been scoring at a high pace in the playoffs and, if you do the simple math, both team’s combined playoff average is much higher than the Super Bowl XLIII total.
The Cardinals have scored 30, 33 and 32 points in their three playoff games, while the Steelers have scored 35 and 23 points in their two playoff outings. Combined, the two teams are averaging 59 points per game in the playoffs, but predicting the game to go over based on that alone is primitive handicapping.
The Cardinals haven’t faced a defense as strong as the Steelers, and that figured to be the biggest obstacle for the over. The Cards offense has been able to dictate the pace of all three of their playoff games, but if a good defense can slow them down on a few drives, it could equal a tighter contest.
The Steelers have the No. 1-ranked scoring defense in the NFL and have allowed more than 21 points just twice in 19 games this season. They also have totaled 51 sacks on the season this year, which ranks second-best in the NFL. If there’s one way to slow down a passing game, it’s to get to the quarterback.
The biggest issue for the Cardinals will be that the Steelers have seen their type of offense all season long. With No. 2 rush defense in the NFL, the Steelers have forced almost all of their opponents to be one-dimensional, so the Cardinals’ pass-happy unit will just be more of the same for the Steelers.
When you factor in the aforementioned pass-rush and the Steelers rush defense, it’s not a coincidence that they finished with 20 interceptions this season, which was the fourth-highest total in the NFL.
STAN’S PICK: The Steelers defense will dominate the game and if that’s the case, the total will not hit 47 points. Bet on the under in Super Bowl XLIII.
For more insight and analysis on Super Bowl totals betting, check out BetOnline.com’s Betting Edge daily.
Stan Simmons first tasted football through the college game, but his football handicapping has strictly focused on the professional sport. Not many people devote as much time to the NFL as Simmons. For six days a week he works, labors and handicaps the sport, and on the seventh he rests as the games play out. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.
