BMW Championship Odds - Johnson will steal Stricker’s thunder

TIGER WOODS +175
STEVE STRICKER +1400
PADRAIG HARRINGTON +1400
JIM FURYK +2000
PHIL MICKELSON +2500
GEOFF OGILVY +2800
SERGIO GARCIA +3300
ANGEL CABRERA +4000
ZACH JOHNSON +4000
STEPHEN AMES +6600

The BMW Championship odds mark the third stop in the PGA FedEx Cup playoffs and an interesting golf betting storyline is brewing. After a third 2009 victory at last weeks’ Deutsche Bank Championship, Steve Stricker jumped to No. 2 in the World Golf Rankings. Can he win the BMW as a hometown favorite?

BMW Championship odds: Short course caters to Zach Johnson’s game

• WHAT: The 2009 BMW Championship
  
• WHEN: Thursday, September 10 to Sunday, September 13
  
• WHERE: Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, IL
  
• KEY STAT: Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker, Jim Furyk and Stephen Ames all have victories at Cog Hill
  
• THE PICK: Zach Johnson +4000

Will the real Tiger Woods (+175) please stand up? I suppose the online betting community is being a bit hard on Tiger; after all, he still has five wins this season. However, even Tiger’s biggest supporters must admit that he’s in a funk. Late-Sunday putting hiccups at the PGA Championship and Barclays; struggles punctuated by club throwing at the Deutsche Bank; it’s clear something’s just off with Tiger. Considering that this week’s track, Cog Hill, is short as can be (6,945 yards), I’d avoid his BMW Championship odds. He’s not a great play when his length doesn’t factor in.

Steve Stricker (+1400) may have carved himself his own private niche as the No. 2 golfer in the world now. He’s not in Tiger territory but, looking at his BMW Championship odds, I wonder if anyone else is close to Stricker. In addition to three wins in 2009, Stricker has eight more top-10 finishes this season. His accuracy and putting skills set him up well to win this week. He’s also a Wisconsin native who attended the University of Illinois and should have a large contingent of hometown supporters. Did I mention he already has a win at Cog Hill? He’s your safe pick of the week.

After struggling for most of 2009, Padraig Harrington (+1400) suddenly won’t go away, so maybe it’s time to start respecting him at the sportsbook again. He has four straight top-10s and three top-fours in his last four weeks. Thanks to his usually strong course management, good putting and great scrambling, he’s contending every week of late. Unfortunately, Paddy is also consistently choking every Sunday with a blowup hole during his “hot streak.” Until he can stop those gaffes, he may not break through for a win.

We can’t forget about Jim Furyk (+2000). The vet won at Cog Hill in 2005 and quietly has eight top 10s this season, largely thanks to his strong all-around game. For whatever reason, though, he can’t make the jump to the top of the leaderboard. Expect yet another top-10 from him, but nothing more.

A solid sleeper to consider in this week’s BMW Championship odds is Zach Johnson at +4000. He’s not on fire by any means, but he’s consistent, having made seven straight cuts. He also has two wins this season and it’s usually somewhat easy to predict his success. He’s a short yet accurate hitter who flourishes on shorter courses. That makes him a good candidate for a strong showing this week.

MARCO’S PICK: Stricker is set up well to win this week but I like Zach Johnson, who will feel far less pressure. He gives you almost triple the sports betting value and always brings his “A” game on short courses. Bet on Zach Johnson.

For full BMW Championship odds, check out our sportsbook. Keep reading BetOnline.com’s Betting Edge section for tips on every FedEx Cup playoff tournament.

Marco Sussman isn't too bad on the links, reportedly a five handicap. But, he's great in the sports betting game. He'll watch just about anything you put in front of him, but golf is what really gets his juices flowing. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.