Colonial odds - why Tim Clark will steal the tourney

Paul Casey +1600
Jim Furyk +1600
Zach Johnson +2000
Geoff Ogilvy +2000
Kenny Perry +2000
Sean O’Hair +2200
Justin Leonard +3300
Vijay Singh +3300
David Toms +3300
Tim Clark +3300

Colonial odds: Short, narrow course favors the accurate

• WHAT: The Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial
• WHEN: Thursday, May 28 to Sunday, May 31
• WHERE: Colonial Country Club in Forth Worth, TX
• KEY STAT: Colonial has three par 4s measuring over 435 yards and three par 4s under 400 yards
• PICK: Tim Clark +3300

The rust has worn off, the weather is warming up and the golf betting season is in full swing. This week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational, played at the same course for longer than any tournament except the Masters, will test golfers’ accuracy, particularly off the tee. At 7,054 yards, Colonial C.C. is one of the shortest tracks on tour, meaning the winner will need to throw darts all weekend.

Paul Casey and Jim Furyk top the field with +1600 online sports book lines. Casey’s line is a bit dangerous considering that he hasn’t played at Colonial, but his game sets him up pretty well there. In six PGA betting starts this season, he’s cracked the top 20 five times and ranks in the top 25 in putting average and greens in regulation. Furyk is a trap; his golf odds look good because he’s been solid in 2009, with three top-10s, but he’s a wild card at Colonial, having finished second in 2007 but missed the cut last year.

Many golf betting fans will gravitate toward Kenny Perry at +2000. In terms of tangible reasons to pick him, there are few better bets; he’s a two-time champ at Colonial, holding the aggregate scoring record there, and he’s finished in the top 10 in half his starts this golf betting season. The intangibles, however, will be Perry’s downfall this week. He still seems rattled after his debacle at the Masters, having finished 59th at the Zurich Classic and 22nd at the Players Championship. He’s also being scrutinized by the media for a potential cheating scandal. Perry’s fantastic ball striking makes him the perfect golf betting pick for Colonial in theory, but he has too many distractions. I’d steer clear.

As far as “name picks” go, Zach Johnson is your man this week. He’s hot, having won the Texas Open in his last start. He’s also the short, accurate type of hitter that can dominate at Colonial, ranking in the top 25 in driving accuracy, proximity to hole and greens in regulation. His sports betting odds of +2000 sure are tempting.

The sleeper pick of the week is Tim Clark, who offers nice value at +3300. He has four straight top-25 finishes in the Colonial odds and has been even more accurate than Johnson this season, ranking inside the top 10 in driving accuracy and proximity to the hole.

MARCO’S PICK: It’s hard to resist picking the storied Perry or surging Johnson, but I like Tim Clark this week. His peripherals are very similar to Johnson’s yet he offers much bigger value for those betting on golf. He’s also due, consistently hanging around the top 10 this season. Bet on Tim Clark.

For more PGA odds and golf betting analysis, check out the Betting Edge at BetOnline.com.

Marco Sussman isn't too bad on the links, reportedly a five handicap. But, he's great in the sports betting game. He'll watch just about anything you put in front of him, but golf is what really gets his juices flowing. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.