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Players Championship odds - Sawgrass isn't kind to Tiger

Posted by Marco Sussman on 4/26/2012 9:39:13 AM
golf betting PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
Tiger Woods +285
Phil Mickelson +1015
Sean O’Hair +2550
Geoff Ogilvy +3050
Ernie Els +3550
Sergio Garcia +4250
Retief Goosen +4250
Henrik Stenson +4850
Stephen Ames +7050
Brian Gay +8050

Players Championship odds: Struggling Sergio is defending champ

  • WHAT: The Players Championship
  • WHEN: Thursday, May 7 to Sunday, May 10
  • WHERE: TPC at Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
  • KEY STAT Tiger Woods hasn’t cracked the top 10 at Sawgrass in his last six starts there
  • PICK: Henrik Stenson +4850

If any course proves that golf betting is about more than just the four major championships, the TPC of Sawgrass is that course. Hosting the Players Championship odds every year, it features (arguably) the most famous hole in golf in the island green on No. 17, the richest purse in golf and one of the best fields. It’s thus no wonder that so many fans of sports betting online dub the Players Championship the “fifth major.” With the stakes so high, will Tiger Woods (+285) elevate his game or will his putting hiccups continue?

It’s understandable that Tiger is the favorite every week he plays but, by his lofty standards, he’s off his game, having finished “only” sixth and fourth in his last two tournaments. While he’s still sticking plenty of his approaches in tight, his putter really eluded him last week and that could spell trouble at Sawgrass, where he did win in 2001 but has finished outside the top 10 six straight times.

Statistically, Phil Mickelson (+1015) may be a better bet than his counterpart this week, as he won the Players Championship odds in 2007 and is consistently in the hunt there. However, until his usually solid short game gets back on track, it may not be a great idea to chase him since he doesn’t offer great sportsbook value.

2009 golf betting has been a nightmare for Sergio Garcia (+4250), but Sawgrass could very well get him back on track. The defending Players Championship odds champion also has a second-place finish at Sawgrass and three total top fives there. Is this the week to capitalize on his sportsbook underdog value? Maybe, but bettor beware; he’s currently nowhere near the skill and confidence levels he had entering his previous successes at the Players Championship.

For golf betting players who like riding hot hands, Sean O’Hair (+2550) and Brian Gay (+8050) are both in position to make serious runs at the Players Championship odds. O’Hair is on fire, having won the Quail Hollow last week and posted 10 top-25s already this golf betting season. Gay won the Verizon Heritage in mid-April and ranks in the top 10 in driving accuracy, proximity to green and scrambling, so his skill set is nicely tailored to Sawgrass. What about Henrik Stenson? He’s never missed the cut in the Players Championship odds, and he has a pair of top-10s at the event.

MARCO’S PICK: Tiger loves to defy the sportsbook odds and could very well stick it to his detractors this week; Gay also looks poised to make a run this week. But I have a good feeling about Stenson. The cool, calm Swede consistently hangs around the top of the leaderboard in the Players Championship odds and is due to bust out. Gay offers great value for a guy with a win this year, but he triumphed over a weak field at the Verizon Heritage. This week’s sports betting odds are a big step up. Bet on Henrik Stenson this week.

Want more golf betting analysis and PGA lines? Visit the Betting Edge at betonline.com.

Marco Sussman isn't too bad on the links, reportedly a five handicap. But, he's great in the sports betting game. He'll watch just about anything you put in front of him, but golf is what really gets his juices flowing. Thoughts or questions?


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