St. Jude Odds – Toms will spoil Mickelson's return

PHIL MICKELSON +705
JUSTIN LEONARD +1050
SERGIO GARCIA +1550
HENRIK STENSON +1550
DAVID TOMS +1550
TIM CLARK +1850
CAMILLO VILLEGAS +2250
RETIEF GOOSEN +2550
PADRAIG HARRINGTON +2850
STEPHEN AMES +3250

Golf betting sure has had its share of drama this year. After Tiger came from behind to win last week, Phil Mickelson makes an emotional return at the St. Jude Classic. He’ll try to get back in the win column after taking time to be with his wife, who was recently diagnosed with breast cancer. Will his family’s challenges help or hurt his St. Jude odds?

St. Jude odds: Fairways, greens are hard to hit at TPC Southwind

• WHAT: The St. Jude Classic
• WHEN: Thursday, June 11 to Sunday, June 14
• WHERE: TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN
• KEY STAT: In the 2008 St. Jude odds, only 53 per cent of approaches hit greens in regulation
• PICK: David Toms +1550

Phil “Lefty” Mickelson (+705) is a polarizing golfer but, love him or hate him, everyone betting online is pulling for him and his wife. Will he ride the crowd support to success in the St. Jude odds? His overall golf betting stats this season aren’t great, but they’re deceiving; he found himself recently, cracking the top 10 in five of his last seven starts. His trademark scrambling ability eluded him early but is starting to return. In the end, though, I can’t justify picking him. He missed the cut at his only career start at Memphis; several other golfers have strong records at TPC Southwind plus better sportsbook value; there’s no guarantee that he won’t be distracted. He’s a better bet for the U.S. Open odds than the St. Jude odds.

Defending champion Justin Leonard (+1050) has both history on his side and a game well-suited to TPC Southwind. He ranks in the top 20 and driving accuracy and scrambling – both important stats since the St. Jude fairways (56 per cent in 2008) and greens (53 per cent) are tough to hit. He also has five top-10s at Memphis, so last year’s victory was obviously no fluke.

However, if you use past success when betting on golf lines, forget Leonard and go a step further. David Toms offers better value at +1550. He’s also a two-time winner of the St. Jude odds. Better yet, he’s first on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, fourth in scoring average and ninth in proximity to hole. He’ll give you everything Leonard does and more.

It’s too bad Sergio Garcia’s offshore sportsbook value (+1550) isn’t a bit better, as he could surprise this week. He’s struggled mightily in North America this season, but he tied for fourth in the St. Jude odds last season and his approaches land within 30 feet or less on average. If he offered more bang for your buck, he’d be worth a sportsbook flier. But why bet on him when Toms can win you just as much?

Don’t forget about Retief Goosen (+2550) and Padraig Harrington (+2850). It’s not often that two guys with four major championships between them play the role of “underdog picks” in golf betting. Just know that Goosen struggles at TPC Southwind (missed cut in 2008, 30th in 2007) and Harrington has been hot-cold (fourth last year, missed cut the year before). Of this pair, Harrington is the better bet based on a stronger recent showing.

MARCO’S PICK: Based on the numbers and course setup, David Toms could have been the sportsbook favorite this week. He offers better value than he should, and you should capitalize. Bet on David Toms to win his third St. Jude Classic. If you want a Hail-Mary pick, try Harrington.

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Marco Sussman isn't too bad on the links, reportedly a five handicap. But, he's great in the sports betting game. He'll watch just about anything you put in front of him, but golf is what really gets his juices flowing. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.