Stanley Cup Picks - Home sweet home will help Pens stay alive

Stanley Cup Picks were as fun as ever through the first four games of the series - but then Game 5 happened. The Penguins suddenly lost their cool and spent half the game in the penalty box. Throughout these NHL betting playoffs, we’ve seen the Penguins “mature.” Were we wrong about their growth?

Stanley Cup Picks: Game 6 Tuesday, June 9 at 8:05 p.m. ET

• Even playing on one foot, Datsyuk was a major catalyst in his return
• More than any of the other Penguins, Crosby and Malkin have to show more discipline
• Marc-Andre Fleury will be fine; Game 6 was not his fault

Any armchair NHL betting fan who knows anything about the Detroit Red Wings knows that taking penalties against them is a death sentence. The Wings’ 25.7 per cent power play was the best since the 1995-96 Pittsburgh Penguins in the regular season, and they sit at 25.0 per cent in these playoffs. Early in the series, a big reason for Pittsburgh’s success as Stanley Cup picks was their surprising discipline. For some reason, the wheels fell off in Game 5. The Pens fell behind early, became frustrated, and started taking increasingly dumb penalties. Even superstars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were culprits, getting the worst infractions of all. It’s no wonder Detroit filled the net.

A big reason why the Wings succeeded in Game 5: Pavel Datsyuk’s return. He certainly still isn’t at 100 per cent, but he was the catalyst. Not only was he making crisp passes all night long, he helped take the defensive pressure off Henrik Zetterberg. As a result, both he and Zetterberg could more effectively shadow the Penguins stars, and the frustration ensued. Notice how it seems every penalty the Pens commit is on Zetterberg? He’s in their heads.

Despite the Pens’ shortcomings in Game 5, the series is far from over. Most of their struggles stem from playing on the road; in Game 5, the Wings had a bit more jump and the Penguins stopped moving their feet, resulting in the parade to the sin bin with a bunch of stick-oriented penalties (slashing, tripping, high-sticking) – all telltales signs of lazy defense from a team that seems to need a home crowd to work hard.

Thankfully for the Pens, they’ll come home on Tuesday, and the Mellon Arena crowd - which has been a real boost throughout the playoffs - should help them skate hard again. Some people making Stanley Cup picks may worried about Marc-Andre Fleury after he was shelled and subsequently pulled in Game 5, but he’ll be fine. The goals really weren’t Fleury’s fault – they came from screens, nice passes and were almost all on the power play – and he’s a far more confident puckstopper at home, so you can put faith in him at your offshore sportsbook.

DON’S PICK: Those who bet on sports undoubtedly have questions about the Penguins’ maturity and mental toughness after what happened in Game 5, not to mention every game in Detroit during this series - but the answers to those questions will come in Game 7, not Game 6. The Pens are still a formidable bunch at home, and they’ll be fighting for their lives. As long as Crosby and Malkin don’t let Datsyuk and Zetterberg get inside their heads again – it would be inexcusable for the Pens’ stars to take more selfish penalties – Pittsburgh will force Game 7. Doing so won’t be easy, of course; we’re talking about the defending champion Wings, here.

For sports betting picks and more Stanley Cup picks, keep reading the Betting Edge at BetOnline.com.

Who better to offer great sports betting and hockey tips than a native Canadian? Like any good Canuck, Don Melrose eats, sleeps, breathes and bets hockey, making him the perfect NHL handicapper. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.