AND THE WINNER IS?
FINALLY, it’s here and those that started to see the symptoms of Derby Fever in early February are at a boiling point by now and the events of the last few days have not made things any easier.
Eskendereya made it 2 years in a row that the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby was injured and could not compete but he has not been the only runner to be riding high in April, shot down in May.
Before we get into the selection, a word has to go out about how to get paid in this race the last few years. The brave that took swings in the superfecta and got lucky came away with some life changers.
Last year was the mother lode for Mine that Bird fans as his 50-1 upset produced a $2 superfecta that came back $557,006.40.
Two years ago, despite Big Brown turning foes green with envy, he tipped off a landslide of cash as his winning $6.80 mutuel was followed by 13, 27 and 37-1 shot to account for a near $59,000 superfecta success.
Tepid chalk won in 2007 when Street Sense prevailed but when a 28-1 shot slipped in to 4th, the $2 superfecta returned over $29,000.
And if you go back to War Emblem’s wire-to-wire win in 2001 at 201, the $1 superfecta that year paid just under $92,000.
Let’s try to get paid Saturday with John Sadler’s Sidney’s Candy, who will likely be second choice in the wagering at post time.
By the unbeaten Candy Ride, Sidney’s has the pedigree to thrive as they go on. You have to go deep, but his second dam Exchange earned $1.2 million, was a multiple Grade 1 winner and won at a mile and a half.
The ability he will have to prove is that he can sit just off a projected very hot pace and quicken in time to make the top and hold off the deep closers.
He will be helped in the process by his stablemate Line of David, who by all accounts through the Churchill works, brings brilliant speed but no stick.
There is more early velocity in this Derby than of any in recent memory with possibly 8 or so runners gunning for the top at the sound of the bell.
Also be aware of the quotes from John Sadler’s assistant trainer Larry Benavidez about Candy’s recent :59.80 workout.
"When he broke his maiden, he was off the pace. He’s not really a speed horse. He can rate: he shuts it down pretty easily. He’s a smart horse and actually kind of acts like an older horse. Today was helpful in that being prepared for the Derby he can lay second or third. He passed with flying colors today."
Here’s the way to take a shot.
In the superfecta, key Sidney’s Candy on top with Noble’s Promise, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin, Awesome Act and Ice Box.
On another superfecta ticket, key Lookin at Lucky on top with Sidney’s Candy, Noble’s Promise, Dublin, Awesome Act and Ice Box.
