Bet Kentucky Derby – The Race Shape

With a full gate of 20 sports betting runners in prospect for the 2011 Kentucky Derby betting, it’s obvious that luck will play a big factor but a bigger issue is the pace of the race and how the Kentucky Derby betting shapes up.

If the Todd Pletcher trainee Uncle Mo gets there he will be forwardly placed from the get go but in all likelihood, he won’t be alone on the lead just because of the hype and excitement of the Derby.

The pace is generally crazy because riders are human and they get caught up in the moment. There is nothing like making the lead in the Derby but nothing matters if you can’t finish.

Mo will be a tough ticket to play just because of his condition. Sure, he’s been brilliant so far but the Derby is such a demanding race to win that everything has to be perfect. The t’s have to be crossed, the eyes have to be dotted and then you have to get a good trip.

Uncle Mo worked on Tuesday on a sloppy Churchill strip and recorded a 1:01.69 5-furlong drill.

At least with speed horses, your fate is more in your own hands as opposed to deep closers that need to get the right trip, not get stopped, and then quicken in time and accelerate faster than the other closers.

Midnight Interlude will push the pace big time. He brings :45 and change pace to the party and proved he can rate when he came from fifth to take the Santa Anita Derby.

He has a legit thing going against him though. It has been 128 years since a horse that did not run at 2 win the Derby. Sure, all records and rules are made to be broken but know that Apollo in 1882 was the only horse in history to get the Roses without experience at 2.

A total of 46 horses tried to do it but only three were in the money including the great Curlin, who could just manage a third.

Pants on Fire, doesn’t have brilliant speed, but he will be in a nice stalking position. Mucho Macho Man will be in the first flight with a good post as will the Fountain of Youth winner Soldat.

Shackleford is another that has positional speed and should be in good striking range if he goes. He will need a defection or two in order to quality as a top 20 horse.

On the other end of the spectrum come the deep closers Dialed In, Nehro, and Toby's Corner, all who will take their fair share of action.

It looks like the pace will favor closers but apparently history does not.

According to a piece on the Bloodhorse website and stats provided by TrueNicks's Ian Tapp, since 1950 77% of the Derby winners had the lead at eighth-pole. Of those eighth-pole leaders, 95% finished in the exacta and 98% in the trifecta. The only horse to have the lead at the eighth-pole and not finish in the money in the last 60 years was Sea Cadet in 1991, who finished eighth after having to lead with a furlong remaining.

With that said, know that Super Saver came from about 5 and a half lengths off the pace last year and in 2009, Mine That Bird came from dead last and won going away.

Street Sense was 19th early in 2007, but he had a length at the 8th pole and was coming away late to cash at Churchill.

Big Brown took the 2008 Derby with a perfect trip when about 2 and a half off the pace but also know that year that Denis of Cork was 20th early, but rallied to get third at 27-1.

Bettors should try to keep their heads when analyzing the Derby and logically visualize where the contenders will be early in the race. That is the key to victory and visualization.

Below is the Graded earnings list courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com and the last gasp to get earnings is the Derby Trial Saturday at Churchill.