Kentucky Derby odds - Derby Dozen taking shape

Kentucky Derby odds are coming! Last weekend’s Lexington Stakes was won by Advice, but third-place finisher Square Eddie looks like the best Kentucky Derby prospect to exit that race. He made an eye-catching, 6-wide move on the turn and took over entering the stretch before tiring late.

For you Racebook fans, here’s the updated list, in order of preference, with each horse’s previous ranking in parentheses.

Kentucky Derby odds: the current Top-12 contenders

• WHO: The Top-12 Kentucky Derby Contenders
• WHAT: The Kentucky Derby
• WHERE: Churchill Downs
• WHEN: Saturday, May 2

Today, we’ll be reviewing the Top-12 Derby contenders. We’ll update this list weekly until the field is solidified. Here’s the list, in order of preference, with their previous ranking in parentheses.  

1. I Want Revenge (1). This guy’s got just about everything you’d want in a Derby horse…tactical speed, stamina, toughness, distance breeding (332 Tomlinson Distance Rating), a beautiful stride, the top 2-turn Beyer Speed Figure (113), tremendous recent form, solid 2YO foundation, a perfect racing schedule (4 week intervals to the Gotham, Wood, and Derby), and he appears to be getting better. The only knock I can come up with is that he hasn’t raced at Churchill Downs, although he turned in a good work over the track on April 21. Still, the top pick. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
2. Friesan Fire (2). Trainer Larry Jones will train this son of A.P. Indy up to the Derby off a 7-week layoff. Friesan Fire has gotten better with each start as a 3YO and was ultra-impressive in his Louisiana Derby romp. Still, no horse has won the Derby off this long a layoff since Needles in 1956. Nice horse, but a tall order. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
3. Dunkirk (3). After all the worry, it turns out that this guy will have sufficient graded earnings to make the field of 20. That’s good news for his connections and racing fans alike, because Dunkirk’s the real deal. Granted, he lost to Quality Road last out, but that rival had all the best of it pace-wise and surface-wise. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
4. Quality Road (4).It was a toss-up between this guy and Dunkirk for the third spot. His Florida Derby win was outstanding, but I can’t help wondering if he’ll trip over his pedigree going 1 ¼ miles (226 Tomlinson Distance Rating). The quarter crack issue appears to be a thing of the past. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
5. Pioneerof the Nile (5). Nice horse for a Hall-of-Fame trainer who knows how to win this race. Beyer figs are so-so and ‘Pioneer hasn’t tried dirt. However, his outstanding work at Churchill Downs on April 21 had trainer Bob Baffert beaming. Got the job done in the Santa Anita Derby despite the lack of pace. Will need to step his game up a notch. Huge threat from off the pace. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
6. Chocolate Candy (6). Interesting dark horse has won four of his last six (with a second and a third) and can hold his own with the best in the West. Solid mile move on April 21 at Churchill should have him plenty fit. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
7. Desert Party (7). Wasn’t at his best in UAE Derby and track condition favored his stablemate. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
8. Regal Ransom (8). Connections seem to like Desert Party better. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
9. Papa Clem (9). Captured The Arkansas Derby in a gutty effort, and finished second behind a pair of likely Derby favorites in his two previous starts. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
10. General Quarters (10). Could be the “feel-good story” of the Derby. One-horse barn bagged The Blue Grass, so now it’s on to Louisville. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
11. Hold Me Back (11). Lane’s End win was powerful and Blue Grass runner-up effort was commendable, but he didn’t do much in his only dirt start. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
12. Musket Man (12). Cheap yearling purchase ($15K) just keeps winning (5-of-6). His pedigree (252 Tomlinson Distance Rating) doesn’t favor the mile-and-a-quarter distance, though. Next race: The Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 2.
13. Square Eddie (new). Should benefit greatly from his first start off a three-month layoff, and could be the surprise package in The Run for the Roses. Also bear in mind that ‘Eddie was considered to be one of the division leaders before suffering an injury earlier this year.

This wraps up our Derby Dozen ranking for the 135th Run for the Roses. Stay tuned to the Betting Edge horse racing betting section to help zero in on your selections for the first Saturday in May.

Pete Mitchell has been handicapping horses since his teenage years. He has been a professional horse player for many years, and came to BetOnline.com’s attention through multiple referrals from industry insiders/sportsbook owners. Pete is revered for his horse handicapping opinion and industry experts acknowledge his impressive career winning record. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.