Older Fillies and Mares in Spotlight Saturday
- Who: Thoroughbreds – Tar Heel Mom, Malibu Prayer, Forever Together, Tuscan Evening
- What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Vagrancy Handicap, The Gamely
- Where: Belmont Park, Hollywood Park
- When: Saturday, May 29th
Next week we’ll look at what is shaping up to be a less-than-stellar Belmont Stakes. In the meantime, we’ve got older fillies and mares competing on both coasts…one group sprinting on dirt in the Grade 2 Vagrancy Handicap at Belmont Park and the other routing on grass in the Grade 1 Gamely at Hollywood Park. Let’s analyze both races and identify the value plays.
There’s an abundance of speed in The Vagrancy Handicap, so it appears that a stalker would have a tactical advantage. Rightly So, Hold That Prospect, Lady Alexander and Saarlight have all done their best work on the front end. Likely favorite Tar Heel Mom also possesses excellent speed, but has turned in some huge efforts from just off the pace. A stalking trip would probably serve her best in this spot. Malibu Prayer strikes me as the horse to beat if she’s ready to fire her best shot off a nearly 7-month layoff. She closed out her 3YO campaign with a pair of victories in one-turn mile events, the latter of which was the Grade 2 Chilukki at Churchill Downs. She ran a distant second behind Horse-Of-The-Year Rachel Alexandra in The Mother Goose, and her other Belmont start resulted in a 6 3/4-length romp in The Cat Chat last September, so you know she likes the Belmont oval. Her recent main-track breezes have been sharp, and Pletcher’s go-to guy John Velazquez will be back aboard. The layoff should provide us with decent value. I’ll bet Malibu Prayer to win at odds of 3-1 or better.
Tuscan Evening has been on a roll, winning four straight and five of her last six. Her only defeat during that time frame was to the top-notch Ventura in the Grade 1 Matriarch last November. She has stretched her abundant speed to 1 ¼ miles, winning the Grade 2 Santa Barbara Handicap last out in gate-to-wire fashion. Helping her cause was the fact that she was able to set pedestrian fractions of :49 and 1:13 3/5 in that event. I don’t believe she’ll enjoy that luxury in The Gamely, due to the presence of the rapidly-improving Medaglia d’ Amour. That filly is a confirmed stalker, but she’s been tracking swifter fractions than what Tuscan Evening has grown accustomed to lately. I have a feeling that she’ll apply pressure to the favorite before leaving the backstretch, which should set things up for the late-charging Forever Together. The 6YO gray mare has lost five of her last six, but her comebacker at Keeneland, which she lost by a half-length, was encouraging. 1 1/8th miles is arguably her best distance, and her swift 5-furlong work on May 25th indicates she’s on her toes. I’ll bet Forever Together to win at odds of 2-1 or better, in what figures to be a mild upset.
