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UFC odds – How to win big betting on the octagon

Posted by Jack "The Hammer" Howard on 8/25/2009 10:32:18 AM

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MMA bettingDid you know that UFC betting is the fastest growing sport in North America? Bigger than NASCAR? It’s amazing to see how quickly mixed martial arts has exploded, even surpassing boxing according to many sportsbook oddsmakers. Despite its popularity, though, many fans of betting online still don’t really know the ins and outs of UFC betting. Let’s examine the best ways to dominate your UFC picks like a prize fighter in the octagon.

UFC odds: Keys to MMA betting

  • Don’t overthink big fights – upsets are rare
  • Review fighters’ styles to look for mismatches
  • A fighter’s history helps predict his future results

To provide a template of how to bet on UFC or any MMA odds, we’ll use the Anderson Silva vs Thales Leites title fight. Obviously, the UFC 97 clash was a flop, but it still can provide UFC betting fans with great examples on what to look for in UFC odds.

Anyone who enjoys sport betting online loves to find that magic sportsbook upset, and many UFC betting fans dream of Matt Serra’s wild surprise knockout of Georges St-Pierre at UF C 69. The truth, however, is that upsets are extremely rare, especially in high-profile fights featuring legends of the sport. Take Anderson Silva vs Thales Leites; Silva was widely regarded as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, having beaten some legendary fighters, including Rich Franklin in dominant fashion twice. There was just no way Leites was going to beat him, no matter how tempting his sportsbook value was.

A good UFC betting fan would’ve known the result of the fight in advance not just because of Silva’s name value, but because of the fighting style break down. Knowing fighters' strengths and weaknesses entering a fight can give you a good idea of who will have the advantage. Leites was a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master who rarely won with strikes, but he was facing a man with a Jiu-Jitsu black belt of his own at UFC 97 in Silva. In other words, Leites’ traditional advantage was neutralized, meaning the better striker – Silva by a long shot, as he’ s a dominant Muay Thai fighter – had a clear edge. Researching styles can go a long way. Another example would be a strong wrestler (Matt Hughes) fighting a strong wrestler who also has great striking skills (Georges St-Pierre); the more versatile fighter usually wins.

A simple way to dominate your UFC odds picks is to look at a fighter’s resume and ask the big question: “Whom has he beaten?” In Leites’ case, he’d only fought one significant opponent before Silva – Nate Marquardt – but even that victory was decided by points being deducted from Marquardt. On paper, UFC betting fans should’ve known before the fight that Leites was in way over his head.

Naturally, some fighters are exceptional in that they break through by beating a big-name fighter without having done so previously but, again, you can look at historical evidence to predict that result. Shane Carwin was a sportsbook underdog at UFC against Gabriel Gonzaga, not having defeated any well-known opponents. But the telling stat was that he’d beaten every one of his opponents in the first round. He was clearly so far ahead of his previous UFC betting competition that his UFC odds were much better than expected against Gonzaga.

There you have it – a few simple but highly effective tips to help you dominate in UFC betting. Follow them and you’ll pack a wallop in UFC odds. Trust me; they don’t call me the Hammer for nothing.

For sports betting lines and UFC betting analysis, the Betting Edge at BetOnline.com is your one-stop shop for everything to do with UFC odds.

Jack “ the Hammer” Howard is new to the MMA handicapping game, but his roots in the sport run deep. He enjoyed a brief amateur career in mixed martial arts and also has some boxing experience under his belt, making him an authority on the subject. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.


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