X-factor - Rich Franklin offers great value as underdog

MMA betting: Franklin an underdog in UFC 93 odds despite great track record

There just might be a dominant, extended UFC title run starting in the light heavyweight division in 2009. And it may not be current champion Rashad Evans who starts that run.

I’m thinking maybe, just maybe… Rich Franklin could be the next great light heavyweight champ.

What do you think, sports betting fans? Am I crazy? After all, sportsbook odds have Franklin as a +120 underdog in this weekend’s UFC 93 betting matchup against Dan Henderson (-150).

It’s understandable for Henderson (23-7) to be the MMA betting favorite. The former Pride champion is an accomplished wrestler and he’s tangled with some of the best fighters on Earth – most recently, Anderson Silva and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson.

Ultimately, however, Franklin is the underdog not because MMA betting fans fully expect him to get pummeled; it’s because he’s a total wild card after recently jumping from middleweight to light heavyweight. The weight-class transition makes Rich Franklin this week’s BetOnline X-Factor; he could flame out quickly or he could completely alter UFC betting in the light heavyweight division.

When examining Franklin’s weight-class change, the natural reaction is to write him off or at least declare him a major UFC betting underdog based on his recent fight history. After all, Anderson Silva beat Franklin, the former middleweight champ, to a bloody pulp twice. Franklin was also knocked out by current light heavyweight contender Lyoto Machida in Pride and would almost certainly have to go through him again should he want a shot at Evans’ light heavyweight title.

But any MMA betting fan who views the losses to Machida and Silva as evidence that Franklin will flop has a selective memory. First, those are the only losses of his entire career. Compare those with his 26 wins and he looks pretty good, doesn’t he?

Secondly, a look at Franklin’s long list of middleweight victims – including Nate Quarry, David Loiseau and Travis Lutter – shows he had no problem tangling with other “big” middleweights – in other words, fighters who easily could’ve fought at 205 pounds instead of 185. MMA betting fans may even remember Travis Lutter famously failing to make weight for a middleweight title bout with Silva. Those who worry that Franklin’s tremendous striking power won’t translate to light heavyweight should remember the girth of his middleweight opponents.

Finally, not only did Franklin pummel the beefy Matt Hammill in his first fight after jumping to 205 pounds, UFC betting fans probably forget that Franklin was in fact a light heavyweight earlier in his career.

One win over the good-but-not-great Hammill isn’t enough to make Franklin a surefire light heavyweight contender. But his career to date certainly suggests he has a shot against Henderson. Henderson is a massive step up from Hammill as opponent; thus, if Franklin can pull out the upset, he will officially turn the light heavyweight division on its head.

Franklin’s potentially disruptive impact makes him this week’s X-Factor. Will you bet on him in Saturday’s UFC 93 odds?

For more UFC 93 betting and sportsbook lines, bookmark the Betting Edge at betonline.com.

Jack “ the Hammer” Howard is new to the MMA handicapping game, but his roots in the sport run deep. He enjoyed a brief amateur career in mixed martial arts and also has some boxing experience under his belt, making him an authority on the subject. Thoughts or questions?