UFC Fight Night betting – Condit’s UFC debut will rock

After Dana White lumped several events close together in February and March, it’s felt like an eternity since we’ve seen a good UFC betting event.

Wednesday’s Fight Night, which features Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Condit and Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann, is a nice warmup before UFC 97 in mid April.

UFC Fight Night betting: Condit looks to carry his WEC success to the UFC

• WHO: Martin Kampmann (14-2) vs Carlos Condit (23-4)
• WHAT: UFC Fight Night odds
• WHEN: Wednesday, April 1 at 8:00 p.m. ET
• WHERE: Sommet Center in Nashville, TN
• PICK: Condit

Kampmann vs Condit odds

Danish-born Martin Kampmann toiled in the UFC middleweight division and the results were mixed. Among his notable victories were wins over Jorge Rivera and current No. 1 contender Thales Leites. However, after Nate Marquardt destroyed him in just over a minute at UFC 88 last September, Kampmann decided to drop down to welterweight. Kampmann made an impressive debut in his new weight class at UFC 93 with a TKO win over Alexandre Barros.

Now headlining the UFC Fight Night odds, Kampmann has a chance to make a big statement and move up in a division that is fairly wide open save for Georges St-Pierre and Thiago Alves. The Muay Thai fighter has shown versatility, mixing submission and knockout wins throughout his career.

Standing his way is UFC newcomer Carlos Condit. Just because Condit isn’t a household name, however, doesn’t mean MMA betting fans should write him off. Condit has pedigree; after winning the WEC welterweight title two years ago, he successfully defended three times before relinquishing the belt so he could join the UFC. Kampmann’s main strength is probably striking but, in Condit, he faces a man who has never been knocked out.

Three of Condit’s four career losses came via submission. In theory, then, Kampmann should take him to the ground, but Condit’s strength is his ground game, as 13 of his 23 wins were submissions. In other words, Condit’s chin neutralizes Kampmann’s supposed advantage and Condit is also the superior ground fighter.

JACK’S PICK: Online sports betting fans may view Kampmann as the more accomplished fighter, but Condit is an awkward matchup for him. Since Condit should neutralize Kampmann’s strengths, he makes for the better offshore sportsbook pick. Bet on Condit.

Other UFC Fight Night lines

Ryan Bader (9-0) vs Carmelo Marrero (10-2-1): Here comes Darth Bader! The well-rounded Ultimate Fighter 8 winner has a bright future and Marrero will be his first punching dummy. He’s such a heavy favorite that you can’t win big betting on him, but he’s the better pick. Bet on Bader.

Tyson Griffin (12-2) vs Rafael Dos Anjos (11-3): I think Griffin was robbed against Sean Sherk, and he feels the same way. He’ll be focused and angry against Dos Anjos, so go with Griffin here.

Junie Browning (3-1) vs Cole Miller (14-3): I like the underdog Browning. Miller is solid but Browning has more of a killer instinct. If Junie can harness his emotional issues, he’ll become a good UFC fighter. Bet on Browning to pull off the minor upset.

Gleison Tibau (28-5) vs Jeremy Stephens (16-4): This is an extremely important fight for Stephens. Tibau has established himself as a “beat-up-on-no-names, lose-to-good-fighters” type, but Stephens, who has talent and power but lacks smarts, needs a big win to avoid being doomed to Fight Night cards forever. I’ll go with talent over experience and pick Stephens one more time here.

For more UFC betting and sports betting lines, visit the Betting Edge at BetOnline.com.

Jack “ the Hammer” Howard is new to the MMA handicapping game, but his roots in the sport run deep. He enjoyed a brief amateur career in mixed martial arts and also has some boxing experience under his belt, making him an authority on the subject. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.