Ultimate Fighter Finale Odds - Lightweights battle for No. 1 contender status

ULTIMATE FIGHTER FINALE ODDS

DIEGO SANCHEZ -260
CLAY GUIDA +200

JOE STEVENSON EV
NATE DIAZ -130

The well-oiled UFC betting machine rolls on. A week after UFC 99, “The Ultimate Fighter 9 – Team USA vs Team UK” has its finale. While fight fans who follow the reality series are pumped to see the tournament – Andre Miller faces Ross Pearson in the lightweight final, while the heavyweight finalists are to be determined – the big fights of the night showcase some top lightweight contenders outside the TV show.

Ultimate Fighter finale odds: Winner of Sanchez/Guida could face the winner of Penn/Florian

• WHO: Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez vs Clay “the Carpenter” Guida; Joe “Daddy” Stevenson vs Nate Diaz
• WHAT: “The Ultimate Fighter” finale betting
• WHEN: Saturday, June 20 at 9:00 p.m. ET on Spike TV
• WHERE: The Pearl at the Palms Hotel in Las Vegas, NV
• PICKS: Sanchez, Diaz

Sanchez vs Guida odds

After a long and sometimes bumpy road, Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez (22-2) may finally be on the verge of a title shot. He put himself on the map when he beat Kenny Florian to win middleweight contest in the original season of the Ultimate Fighter. Interestingly enough, both he and Florian have since dropped two weight classes to lightweight, and could face each other again in a title fight soon. Florian himself battles BJ Penn for the title in August, and Sanchez may face the winner of that bout if he beats Clay Guida here in Vegas.

Though he’s a solid and rapidly improving technical striker, Sanchez is a ground grappler above all else and has the ability to submit opponents. He faces another wrestler in Clay Guida (25-6), the long-haired fan favorite known for his relentless hustle. Sports betting lines have Guida as a huge underdog, and he’s probably fine with that as he always seems to be the long shot. He never accomplishes much standing up, but he wins over judges by controlling the pace of the fight with takedowns and a smothering grapple technique that some detractors call the “Clay and Pray.”

JACK’S PICK: Guida is a surprisingly strong guy for his size and always seems to do enough to win on the ground, even submitting opponents once in a blue moon. However, he’s biting off more than he can chew against Sanchez. On the ground, Sanchez can match Guida; remember, Sanchez once fought at middleweight, so he’ll be more than strong enough to withstand Guida’s pressure. Secondly, he’s much better standing up. Guida’s heart is admirable, but Sanchez is on another level. Bet on Diego Sanchez to outclass Clay Guida and win.

Stevenson vs Diaz odds

How the mighty have fallen. Joe Stevenson (34-10) went from “Ultimate Fighter 2” winner to No. 1 contender to borderline washed up in four years. The stalky, powerful wrestler, known in sportsbook circles for his guillotine chokes, rocketed up the lightweight division after dropping down in July of 2006, winning four straight fights. Then the wheels fell off when he ran into a peaking BJ Penn, who totally dominated him to win the vacant lightweight title. Including that loss, Stevenson has dropped three of four fights, with the other two losses coming against Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez.

It seems Stevenson is regressing when he should be growing as a fighter – he’s one-dimensional, hoping to get lucky with haymakers and sink his guillotine. Versatile fighters like Penn, Florian and Sanchez had so many more weapons at their disposal and Stevenson couldn’t keep up. Now he faces young Nate Diaz (10-3), yet another “Ultimate Fighter” winner. The Jiu-Jitsu prodigy uses his amazingly lanky frame – 6’0” in the lightweight division is unheard of – to dominate on the ground and set up submissions. In his last UFC betting venture, he lost a controversial split decision to Clay Guida.

JACK’S PICK: Diaz will be Stevenson’s easiest opponent in a while in that he’s less versatile, but I still like Diaz here. His long frame will make it tough for Stevenson to dominate on the ground and he’s more likely to evolve and improve his striking before the fight. Pick Nate Diaz to win a close battle.

For Ultimate Fighter finale odds and tips for betting online, keep reading the Betting Edge at BetOnline.com.

Jack “the Hammer” Howard is new to the MMA handicapping game, but his roots in the sport run deep. He enjoyed a brief amateur career in mixed martial arts and also has some boxing experience under his belt, making him an authority on the subject. Thoughts or questions? Email Comments@BetOnline.com.