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Dover Odds - Johnson gets out the broom at Dover

Posted by Lee-Roy Buckles on 9/23/2009 11:52:54 AM
NASCAR racing oddsNASCAR betting players shouldn’t be surprised at who the favorite is for Sunday’s AAA 400, the second race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. This week’s betting pick thrashed the field to win the first race at Dover International Speedway (aka the “Monster Mile”) back in June, and he’s looking for his second career sweep on the tough one-mile concrete track.

  • WHAT: NASCAR betting
  • WHEN: Sunday, September 27, 2:00 PM ET
  • WHERE: Dover International Speedway, Dover, DE
  • KEY STATS: Carl Edwards’ 7.6 in 10 Dover races is tops among active drivers
  • PICK: Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson comes in at +400 after his thrilling win in June, as he had a late duel with Tony Stewart before pulling away. Johnson led 298 of 400 laps, and this was his fourth win at Dover. His 10.4 average in 15 Dover races is third among active drivers, and he’s coming off a fourth-place run at New Hampshire.

Mark Martin kept his points lead with his fifth win of the season at New Hampshire, and the No.5 driver is listed at +600 at a track where, like his teammates Johnson and Jeff Gordon, he’s won four times. Martin finished 10th here in the summer, and fourth in last year’s fall Dover race, and he has 29 top-10s in 46 races here. His experience alone should make him a popular sports pick among online betting players.

Greg Biffle may be Roush-Fenway’s best title hope since Carl Edwards broke his foot, and the No.16 driver comes in at +800. Biffle has four top-fives in his last five trips to Dover, including last year’s win in the fall race, and he came in ninth at New Hampshire. Remember, Biffle won the first two races of last year’s Chase, so it’s nothing for the No.16 team to go on a run. It’s consistency that is their problem.

Juan Pablo Montoya is rated at +1300 after an exciting weekend at New Hampshire in which he set the track record in qualifying to win the pole, and then led a race-high 105 laps en route to a third-place run. Montoya is getting so close to his first win on an oval course, and while Dover has been a thorn in his side with a 24.4 average in five races (including a 30th-place result in June), he’s improved on almost every track he’s been to this year.

A solid dark horse in your sportsbook is Ryan Newman at +2200, and the No.39 driver has three wins at Dover, including a sweep of the 2003 races. He’s also won four poles here, and his 10.3 average in 15 races is second only to Edwards’ 7.6. His eighth-place run June was his ninth top-10 at Dover.

LEE-ROY’S PICK: Roush-Fenway has won the last two fall races, but look for Hendrick to end that run this year. Their four drivers have combined for 13 wins at Dover, and three are inside the top seven in terms of finishing average. However, Johnson’s car was clearly the class of the field here in June, and we all know this No.48 team is great in the Chase. They rode around last week to a relatively quiet fourth-place run, so look for them to make a statement at Dover. He already has one sweep at Dover, when he led 358 of 800 laps to win both races in 2002. The three-time defending champion does it again. Pick Jimmie Johnson at +400.

For more sports betting picks and tips as the Chase winds down, follow Lee-Roy in the Betting Edge at

Lee-Roy Buckles is's racing expert.



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