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Texas Odds - Johnson sticks a fork in the Chase with Texas win

Posted by Lee-Roy Buckles on 11/5/2009 10:42:45 AM
NASCAR linesThe sportsbook odds for Sunday’s Dickies 500, the second of two races at Texas Motor Speedway and the eighth of the Chase, is banking on a coronation for the current king of NASCAR. When it comes to the Chase, there’s really no one better than Jimmie Johnson, and the No.48 driver will ensure he wins a record fourth straight title when he takes the checkered flag this week.

  • WHAT: NASCAR betting
  • WHEN: Sunday, November 8, 3:15 PM ET
  • WHERE: Texas Motor Speedway, Fort Worth, TX
  • KEY STATS: Jimmie Johnson’s 8.5 finishing average is tops among current drivers
  • PICK: Jimmie Johnson +420

Maybe they should call the Chase the “Jimmie Johnson” show from now on, as the three-time champion is favored at +420 after an amazing run at Talladega. Johnson ran around in the back to avoid any crashes, and due to some luck and a great fuel call by crew chief Chad Knaus, the No.48 finished sixth. Johnson now returns to a track where he’s won only once in 12 races, but his 8.5 average is the best among active drivers. He also finished second here in the spring race in April.

Jeff Gordon finished ahead of his Hendrick teammate for his only win of the season, and the four-time champion is listed at +580 after finishing 20th at Talladega, his worst finish of the Chase. The spring race was Gordon’s first win at Texas, and this track has given him problems as he has a 15.2 average, more than five spots lower than his starting average of 9.9.

Mark Martin is the other driver with a realistic online betting shot at catching Johnson in the standings, and he comes in at +700 after a 28th-place finish at Talladega in which he wrecked on the last lap and barrel-rolled his No.5 Chevy. Martin finished sixth here in the spring, and he won the second race here back in 1998.

Juan Montoya concludes the list of main contenders at +950, and the No.42 driver finished seventh behind Martin in the Texas spring race, which was his second top-10 in five trips to the 1.5-mile track. Montoya has finished 19th or worse in two of his last three races, and he’ll need a lot of help to overcome even Gordon or Martin in the standings.

If you’re looking to take a bit of a risk, check out the RCR trio of Kevin Harvick (+2800), Clint Bowyer (+2800) and Jeff Burton (+3500), who is the only driver of these three to win here. Burton took the first race here in 1997, and then the 2007 spring race, and he’s coming off a fifth-place finish at Talladega. After a terrible season for RCR, it looks like they’re turning it around as they test out some things for next year, and it wouldn’t be a big stretch to find any of these three with the checkered flag.

LEE-ROY’S PICK: Johnson and Knaus have figured out the Chase: cruise through the first 26 races, and then dominate. Last week’s run at Talladega showed why they’re the best in the business, and it just seems like Johnson is destined to win another title. If we can get another duel half as exciting as the 2007 fall race, when Johnson went door-to-door with Kenseth for his only Texas win, then I’ll be happy. Take Johnson in your NASCAR betting odds and gift-wrap the trophy, it’s all but over now.

For more sports betting picks as the Chase winds down, check out Lee-Roy weekly in the Betting Edge at

Lee-Roy Buckles is's racing expert.



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