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Betting Tips For Red Sox Phillies - Phillies Try To Escape N.L. East Cellar When Facing A.L. East Foe

Posted by Dale "Skip" Lalonde on 5/15/2012 3:03:42 PM

The Philadelphia Phillies haven't fared well in the National League East, but thanks to an interleague series against the Boston Red Sox, they can move upward against the A.L. East.

Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies – Series Overview

Game 1: Friday, May 18

If you are interested in betting on baseball this season, the upcoming three-game series between the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies presents the kinds of situations in which raw numbers aren't all they're cracked up to be. The first installment of this three-game series pits Boston starter Daniel Bard, with an earned-run average of 4.30, against Philadelphia hurler Cole Hamels, who totes a snappy 2.28 ERA at the moment. Hamels is a better pitcher than Bard; you won't get any argument on the matter from a baseball betting expert. However, one must also realize that earned-run averages in the American League and the National League have to be taken with a grain of salt. The American League, because of its use of the designated hitter, is a much tougher league in which to pitch. An ERA just above four runs per game is a lot worse in the National League than in the American League.

If Bard and Hamels switched leagues, their earned-run averages, currently two runs apart, would probably be within three-fourths of a run, maybe only half a run. The sense here is that Boston's better batting order will make Hamels work. Hamels relies on his mixture of speeds to get hitters out, so as long as Boston's hitters are patient, they will get hittable pitches in the strike zone. This game should be very close, but Boston is in a position where it can wear down the Phillies' arms. The Red Sox will strike first and prove that ERAs don't tell the whole story in a baseball game… not all the time, at least.

MLB Betting Pick: Boston

Game 2: Saturday, May 19

The team that is a mystery for a lot of online sportsbooks is the Philadelphia Phillies, and the big reason for the team's slump is that it has not produced at the plate. In Saturday's game, Jon Lester of the Red Sox, with a 3.71 ERA, will face the Phillies' Joe Blanton, who brings a 2.96 earned-run average into Citizens Bank Park. Lester should be able to shut down the Phillies, while Blanton – a reliable starter at the back end of the Phillies' rotation – does not have the overpowering stuff that can silence Boston's bats. Blanton will pitch well, but Lester will pitch better, and that's a recipe for a Red Sox victory in game two.

MLB Betting Pick: Boston

Game 3: Sunday, May 20

The team that online betting sites are not favoring at the moment is Boston. The Red Sox have more weaknesses than the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays, and when they finish this Sunday game, they're likely to have one more loss. The Red Sox will go with Josh Beckett, who carries a large 5.97 ERA into this game. Philadelphia will trot out its staff ace, Cliff Lee, who has been humming along this season with a 2.17 earned-run average. Lee will dominate, while Beckett – immersed in a horrible season – will find it hard to outduel his counterpart. Philadelphia will win the finale of this three-game set.

MLB Betting Pick: Philadelphia

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