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Braves Padres Betting – Padres Keep Rolling With Series Win Over Braves

Posted by Dale “Skip” Lalonde on 6/24/2011 5:32:07 PM
braves padres betting

San Diego’s online betting odds are probably done for the season already, but if you’re a fan of low-scoring games, they’re a team to wager on. The Padres will welcome Atlanta to town this weekend, and you can expect two of the three games to fall under the posted total, while San Diego comes out on top in the series.

What: MLB Betting
When: Friday, June 24th-Sunday, June 26th
Where: PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
Pick: San Diego Padres

Friday, 10:05 PM ET – Derek Lowe (3-5, 4.10) vs. Tim Stauffer (2-5, 3.13)

The Padres are slight -106 favorites with Stauffer on the mound, and he has been the recipient of some poor run support, coming in fifth-worst in the National League. Stauffer has allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts, but he is 2-2 during that time because of an anemic offense; San Diego has scored eight runs in those five games. He is 2-1 in six games (three starts) against the Braves with an ERA of 3.86, and the 29-year-old is 1-3 in eight starts at home with a 3.02 ERA. Lowe hasn’t won in eight starts, and has pitched past the sixth inning just twice in 2011. The 38-year-old has plenty of experience against the Padres, going 5-3 in 16 starts with a 2.76 ERA, but he’s had some bad fortune in San Diego, going 1-3 in nine starts despite a 2.98 ERA.

The Braves come into this game on a four-game win streak after sweeping Toronto at home early in the week, and they’re a decent road team, going 21-16. Meanwhile, the Padres are 14-26 at PETCO, but the bats showed signs of life as they took two of three from the Red Sox in Boston. If they could just get the same run support at home, the season would be a different story. However, they’ll give Stauffer enough run support tonight.

Betting Edge: San Diego Padres

Saturday, 8:35 PM ET – Jair Jurrjens (9-3, 2.11) vs. Dustin Moseley (2-6, 3.02)

Look for this to be a low-scoring affair in your MLB betting book on Saturday night in San Diego, as both are ranked in the bottom ten of the league in run support (Moseley is third-worst, Jurrjens is ninth), and you’ll probably find another close line. Jurrjens tossed a complete game at PETCO back in April, and he’s now 3-1 in five starts against the Padres with a 3.55 ERA. The 25-year-old is actually 1-1 in San Diego with a 7.30 ERA, as he allowed two runs in April, but he was belted for eight in 3.1 innings back in 2010. Moseley is 1-0 in his last five starts, allowed two runs or less in four of those games, and he made his first start against the Braves this season, giving up three runs in six innings in a 5-3 win, but Moseley took a no-decision. The 29-year-old is 1-3 in seven starts at PETCO this season with a 3.70 ERA, and he was complaining of shoulder pain prior to his last start in Minnesota, but he looked fine against the Twins.

 

Often, when you expect a duel between two pitchers with low ERAs, one of the pitchers doesn’t hold up his end of the bargain, but playing in spacious PETCO should keep the runs down in this game. Jurrjens has been pitching extremely well as of late, but the Padres will be motivated to get back at him after the complete-game loss in April. Moseley pitched well enough for a win in his last start against the Braves, and he’ll be rewarded on Saturday.

Betting Edge: San Diego Padres

Sunday, 4:05 PM ET – Tim Hudson (6-6, 3.73) vs. Cory Luebke (1-2, 3.23)

The Braves will probably be the MLB betting favorites on the road in the series finale with Hudson on the mound, and he is coming off every pitcher’s dream outing as the 35-year-old tossed eight shutout innings against Toronto, along with a two-run homer in a 2-0 victory. After a no-decision in Atlanta back in May, Hudson is now 5-0 in 10 games (nine starts) against the Padres with a 3.31 ERA, and he is 1-0 in three games (two starts) at PETCO with a surprisingly high 6.52 ERA. Meanwhile, Luebke is making his first start of the season after 29 relief appearances, and this will only be the fourth of his major-league career, but he has had success against Atlanta in the past. The 26-year-old southpaw is 1-0 in four relief outings against the Braves, and he hasn’t allowed a run in 6.2 innings, whiffing eight batters with no walks.

Experience pays, and Hudson should get the edge in this contest despite his ERA in the past at PETCO. You also have to factor in Hudson’s day record: he is 2-0 in four day starts in 2011 with an ERA of 1.88. The Braves feed off their veteran righthander, and they’ll get to Luebke early and often, so take Atlanta in your sports betting picks on Sunday.

Betting Edge: Atlanta Braves

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