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Brewers vs Reds Odds - Brew Crew will play long ball in Cincy

Posted by Dale "Skip" Lalonde on 4/24/2012 10:04:24 AM
bet on baseballThe Brewers vs Reds odds are a story of fresh starts. After contending in the NL Central for most of the first half, both Milwaukee and Cincinnati limped into the All-Star Break and fell several games behind division-leading St. Louis. What better way to start the baseball betting home stretch than to battle a division rival and shoot back up the standings?

Brewers vs Reds odds: Brewers should mash at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark

  • Thursday, Friday games should be home run derbies
  • Manny Parra could lead bettors to an upset win
  • Gallardo, Cueto both tired from increased workloads

Thursday, July 16, 7:10 p.m. ET
Braden Looper (7-4, 4.94) vs Homer Bailey (1-0, 5.16)

Is Homer Bailey finally here to stay? The young flamethrower was hyped as the NL’s next big thing but seems to fail every time he gets the callup, so you have to tread carefully with his Brewers vs Reds odds at the offshore sportsbook. He walked an absurd 15 batters in his first three starts this season but walked none in his most recent start – against the mighty Phillies. So which version of Bailey will show up against Milwaukee? Chances are, it will be the ugly one. Historically, he’s far worse at Great American Ballpark -- 2-5 with a 7.20 ERA versus 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA on the road.

Braden Looper allows homers like nobody else and doesn’t pitch well in Cincy, but he’s 6-3 against the Reds overall – a product of great run support. When you bet on the Brewers vs Reds odds, expect more of the same help for Looper, courtesy of Home Run Derby champ Prince Fielder.

MLB betting pick: Brewers

Friday, July 17, 7:10 p.m. ET
Jeff Suppan (5-6, 4.70) vs Bronson Arroyo (9-8, 5.38)

The home-run madness should continue Friday night. Jeff Suppan has a 6.93 ERA lifetime at Great American and the resurgent Joey Votto hits .400 off him with two homers and 7 RBI in just 15 at-bats. Suppan’s a safe bet to get rocked.

Bronson Arroyo (who HITS .500 off Suppan, by the way) is pretty terrible at home this season, with an ERA north of six, but he’s historically pitched decently in Cincy and he shut down the Brewers earlier this season on the road. His Brewers vs Reds odds are hardly a sure thing – Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy have combined for seven homers in 52 at-bats off him – but he should have a slight edge over the yucky Suppan. Pick the Reds but, more importantly, pick over the total.

MLB betting pick: Reds

Saturday, July 18, 7:10 p.m. ET
Manny Parra (3-8, 6.78) vs Aaron Harang (4.18)

Feeling lucky? Consider taking a flier on Manny “the Piranha” Parra. He was positively awful for the Brew Crew early this season, walking everything in sight before getting demoted to the minors. He returned with flair last week, shutting out the Cards for seven innings and walking just one.

Aaron Harang is good – very good – at home this season, but the Brewers may offer nice upset betting value in this matchup. Fielder, Hardy, Ryan Braun and Bill Hall all have a career OPS of 1.000 better against Harang, so they can get to him. Take a chance on Parra and you could win big.

MLB betting pick: Brewers

Sunday, July 19, 1:10 p.m. ET
Yovani Gallardo (8-7, 3.22) vs Johnny Cueto (8-6, 3.62)

Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo was dominant in the first half before stumbling badly in his last two starts. Bettors should give him a mulligan, as he’s never had a workload this big in his career and he’s just a season removed from ACL surgery. After his full-week layoff, his Brewers vs Reds odds are tempting.

Funnily enough, young Johnny Cueto is travelling the same path. His ERAs from April through July: 2.19, 2.73, 3.60, 10.03. He’s another dynamic young hurler who’s simply tiring. Since each of these guys is in the same boat, I have to go with the better offense to carry its pitcher. Bet on the Brewers.

MLB betting pick: Brewers

For full Brewers vs Reds odds and other sports betting lines, visit the Betting Edge at

Before his arm flamed out, Dale “Skip” Lalonde was famous for his high-90s heat and power at the plate. He retired young but never turned his back on baseball, earning the nickname “Skip” for his high-school coaching prowess. A true student of the game, he loves crunching the numbers when he handicaps baseball.



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