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Two Scuffling National League Central Teams Clash As Cubs Visit Brewers

Posted by Dale "Skip" Lalonde on 6/26/2013 7:46:45 PM

In the course of a Major League Baseball season, you’re going to get riveting series between contenders in divisional races… and then you’ll get downmarket series such as this one.

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers – Thursday, June 27
Sports betting line: Cubs -115

Why Chicago Will Win

When betting websites size up this game, they won't have to come up with overly complex reasons for a Chicago victory. Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta owns an earned-run average that has ballooned to 5.59. The Brewers have been so substandard in 2013 precisely because their starting rotation has not been able to deliver any semblance of high-quality consistency. The “consistency” Milwaukee has seen from its pitching staff has been a consistency of mediocrity, not excellence. The Brewers have had to rely on a lot of spot starters and a bullpen-by-committee approach at times. Surely, Milwaukee would have found a replacement for Peralta if it had one available, but that’s precisely the point with the 2013 Brewers: They do not have enough bodies to offer a reasonably good alternative to Peralta in their starting rotation. They’re stuck, and that’s why the Cubs’ offense could surge in this contest, giving the visitors from the Windy City a pick-me-up in a season that needs several. You might not be supremely confident in Chicago starting pitcher Matt Garza as a bettor, but the alternative to trusting Garza is placing your faith in Peralta. It’s not that Garza deserves more trust than Peralta – that’s not quite true. The better way of phrasing all this is that Peralta deserves less confidence than Garza. Points of emphasis matter.

Why Milwaukee Will win

This is not poker, but the similarity between these two dealers is great enough to suggest that the Brewers can pull this game out. Yes, it is true that Peralta’s ERA is 1.34 runs higher than the ERA of the Cubs’ starting pitcher in this contest, but it’s not as though Chicago’s main man on the mound is completely deserving of a bettor’s trust.
The Cubs will send Matt Garza to the mound in this tilt. Garza owns a modest 4.25 ERA, which is not particularly good in the National League, given the absence of the designated hitter. Garza was actually better in the American League with the Tampa Bay Rays, helping that franchise make the World Series in 2008. He has regressed in recent years and is not performing with the confidence he used to own. Garza doubts himself these days. He does pitch in a home ballpark – Wrigley Field – that is not particularly friendly to pitchers, but one has to step in and say that other Cubs pitchers have ERAs under three runs and are getting the job done. Garza is not pulling his weight. Sport betting lines should indicate that the Cubs – while perhaps a favorite in this game – should not be favored by much. This is essentially a toss-up game because Garza is wobbly enough to cede the advantage to Milwaukee.

Who Will Win?

The pitching matchup is uncertain, but one has to think that Peralta will be a little bit worse than Garza. The Cubs will find just enough pitching to win a high-scoring affair.

MLB Betting Pick: Chicago Cubs

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