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Miami Tries To Continue To Build Hope For The 2014 MLB Season

Posted by Dale “Skip” Lalonde on 7/19/2013 5:43:10 PM

It’s gone unnoticed by some, but the Miami Marlins have a winning record since the beginning of the month of June. They’re building a foundation for 2014 as they start the second half.

Game 1: Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers – Saturday, July 20

The betting calculus on this game is a complicated one. On one hand, Miami has the pitcher with a much lower ERA and superior current form. Nate Eovalidi owns a snappy 2.93 ERA in five starts this season. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of those five starts. He has been very effective, partly because he has good stuff, but partly because he is foreign to big-league hitters. Eovaldi is the latest example of a pitcher who succeeds in his first few starts because hitters have never seen him before and have not gotten a chance to operate with a specific scouting report firmly in mind. It’s true that as Eovaldi accumulates more of a track record, hitters will be able to attack him better, but he’s still in that “newbie” phase when a young pitcher can flourish.

A thoughtful sports bet realizes that baseball players, like baseball teams, go through ups and downs in a season. Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo, once an ace for the team, has not pitched like an ace thus far. Dogged by personal problems, Gallardo has stumbled to a 4.83 ERA, but unlike Eovaldi, he has made 20 starts and is an established veteran. After the All-Star break, Eovaldi could get nervous and overthink his start, while Gallardo could find mental freshness and treat this game as a new chance to impose himself on an opponent. However, don’t bet on this. One needs to see Gallardo succeed – and Eovaldi fail – before trusting Milwaukee. Go with Miami here.

MLB Betting Pick: Miami

Game 2: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers – Saturday, July 20

Among a group of online betting specialists, this game will generate a lot of debate, and in a manner that’s somewhat (though not entirely) similar to the Eovaldi-Gallardo discussion above. The Orioles have the more established veteran pitcher with Miguel Gonzalez going to the mound, but Gonzalez has a 3.48 ERA in 16 starts while Texas starter Martin Perez has an ERA of exactly three runs in six starts. Do you trust the pitcher with more starts and experience, even though his ERA is higher, or do you trust the better “form” pitcher? Take Texas here on its home field. The Rangers’ bats should be able to make Gonzalez uncomfortable and enable Perez to register another win.

MLB Betting Pick: Texas

Game 3: Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels – Saturday, July 20

When people in the online sports betting legal realm size up this game, they will probably pick Oakland because neither starting pitcher has been announced. While the A’s and Angels think about their starters, one is left with little choice to trust Oakland, the leader in the American League West and a team that has shown its 2012 run was not a fluke.

MLB Betting Pick: Oakland

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