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Fantasy Baseball Odds - Hot and Not for August 5

Posted by Dale "Skip" Lalonde on 4/24/2012 9:46:09 AM
baseball linesFantasy baseball odds are set for the stretch run now that the trade deadline has passed. We know that most players’ fantasy value won’t change based on new situations from here on out. To succeed, we should now take a page from baseball betting and rely on split stats to predict future performances from our hot and not players.


Fantasy baseball odds: Hot and not, August 5

  • No-name hot streaks from Venable, Petit shouldn’t last
  • Hold on to slumping Ryan Howard or you’ll be sorry
  • Jason Bay could be a good buy-low target


WHO’S HOT

Will Venable, outfielder, San Diego Padres
(Last week: .458, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB)

Who? The relatively obscure Venable, a 26-year-old rookie, is making major waves in the outfield for the Padres. Trend or fluke? Well, he does have good power history in the minors, and the Padres are committed to giving their youngsters a shot, but he’ll obviously come back to Earth soon.

Yusmeiro Petit, starting pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks
(Last week: 14 IP, 2 W, 12 K, 0.00 ERA)

Here’s another breakout no one predicted at the offshore sportsbook. On one hand, Petit is only 25, so it’s possible that he’s blossoming. On the other hand, he was getting his behind handed to him week in, week out before his two-start hot streak and one of those great recent efforts came against Pittsburgh. Sell high.

Jonathan Sanchez, starting pitcher, San Francisco Giants
(Last week: 12 IP, 2 W, 15 K, 1.42 ERA)

It’s been an interesting season for Sanchez, who went from sleeper to bust to breakout in the span of a few months. His stuff was never in doubt -- just his walk rate. While I think he’ll have value for the rest of the season because of his strikeouts, his walks are starting to climb again, so he’s due to lay a few eggs. Consider moving him for a less flashy but more effective hurler like Scott Baker.

Top waiver pick (owned in less than 50 per cent of leagues): Rajai Davis, outfielder, Oakland Athletics
(Last week: .364, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB)

It looks like Rajai Davis could be a useful addition to fantasy lineups in deeper leagues down the stretch for the second straight year. While you shouldn’t expect the run production to continue, he’ll provide cheap speed. He’s a career .287 hitter with 38 steals in 136 games after the All-Star break.


WHO’S NOT

Ryan Howard, first baseman, Philadelphia Phillies
(Last week: .174, 0 HR, 1 RBI)

If you’re panicking and trying to deal him, I’m betting you’re new to fantasy baseball odds. Howard will always be streaky, but he’s a career .313 hitter with a 1.143 OPS in September. You want him on your team in the fantasy playoffs.

Jason Bay, outfielder, Boston Red Sox
(Last week: .182, 0 HR, 0 RBI)

Hmm. This is more than just a slump for Bay’s fantasy baseball odds now. Make that .230 in June, .192 in July and .196 since the All-Star break. Considering that June and July are his worst months historically, it may be worth buying low on him for the August-September stretch run.

Kevin Gregg, relief pitcher, Chicago Cubs
(Last week: 2.1 IP, 0 SV, 2 blown saves, 19.29 ERA)

Just when we thought his grip on the closer job in Chicago was firm as ever, he blows two saves in a row and reportedly has a “tired arm.” Gregg owners have a tough decision. On one hand, manager Lou Piniella is faithful to him and will likely keep him in the closer role for a while longer. On the other hand, Gregg has never been the best closer out there. If you’re not hurting for saves, you could consider moving Gregg while he still has value.


For more fantasy baseball odds and offshore sportsbook lines, the Betting Edge’s betonline.com has you covered.

Before his arm flamed out, Dale “Skip” Lalonde was famous for his high-90s heat and power at the plate. He retired young but never turned his back on baseball, earning the nickname “Skip” for his high-school coaching prowess. A true student of the game, he loves crunching the numbers when he handicaps baseball.

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