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Home Run Derby Odds - Prince will outslug the past homer king

Posted by Dale "Skip" Lalonde on 4/24/2012 10:05:28 AM
MLB oddsWithout the Home Run derby odds, the MLB All-Star festivities wouldn’t be the same, would they? Seeing sluggers belt homers Monday night is the perfect warmup for MLB betting fans before Tuesday’s Midsummer Classic. We’ve seen lots of excitement over the years, from a backwards-capped Ken Griffey Jr. thrilling fans to Josh Hamilton’s 28-homer round last year. Who’s the best bet to win in 2009?

Home Run Derby odds: Top favorites all from National League this season

  • WHAT: The 2009 MLB Home Run Derby
  • WHEN: Monday, July 13 at 8:00 p.m. ET
  • WHERE: Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO
  • KEY STAT: Five of last seven winners played in the American League
  • THE PICK: Prince Fielder

As of Friday, July 10, seven of eight possible participants were confirmed. Let’s break down each contestant’s Home Run Derby odds:

Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox

The Canadian-turned-American citizen is a definite long shot to win the Home Run Derby odds. Historically, certain hitters just don’t mix well with the Derby; Mike Piazza famously struggled year in and year out. Bay seems to fit that mould too: in his only Derby appearance (2005), he went homerless. While some fans of sports betting online would chalk the result up to nerves, guys who struggle that badly usually don’t reverse their Derby trends.

Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers

A born home-run hitter in his build and his pedigree, Prince was hitting homers out of Tigers Stadium in front of daddy Cecil when he was 12 years old. Because he has such an uppercut swing, we don’t have to worry about him tweaking his mechanics for the Derby. He’s a solid pick since he has great natural power and should fall under the radar thanks to Pujols and Howard.

Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres

Maybe the Home Run Derby odds will finally give Gonzalez, one of baseball’s top all-around players, the attention he deserves. Since he’s managed so many homers despite playing in PETCO Park - the game’s top pitcher’s park - he clearly has big power. However, he’s more of a pure hitter than just a power guy, so I don’t see him lighting up the scoreboard at the Derby.

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies

There are few Home Run Derby odds contenders better than Howard. He’s as pure a homer machine as you’ll see in the game today. Whereas Albert Pujols’ power is more a product of his overall hitting prowess, Howard’s game is about his girth and huge natural strength. He’s a former champion and a great pick to win another Derby.

Brandon Inge, Detroit Tigers

The last-minute addition Inge is a sleeper, as his aggressive stroke lends well to the Derby. However, as a newcomer not just to the Home Run Derby, but to the All-Star Game, he’ll probably be a bit nervous, so I’d avoid him.

Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

Don’t forget about Longoria. He’s come back to Earth after his hot start and his sore hamstring has sapped a bit of his power, but he knows how to hit the ball over the fence when he wants to. He shouldn’t be jittery as this isn’t his first Derby, and he’ll offer better offshore sportsbook value than most of the other contestants.

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

He should be the top favorite thanks to the massive season he’s having, and because he’ll be hitting in front of his home crowd. But be careful; there’s little to no correlation between the guy leading the league in homers at the time of the Derby and the actual champ from year to year. You may be better off picking a guy who gives you better value.

SKIP’S PICK: I’m feeling Prince Fielder. He’s hitting for major power this season, he’s a natural home-run hitter, and he should give you better bang for your buck than Howard and Pujols. Bet on Prince Fielder to win.

For Home Run Derby odds and other sports betting tips, visit the Betting Edge at betonline.com.

Before his arm flamed out, Dale “Skip” Lalonde was famous for his high-90s heat and power at the plate. He retired young but never turned his back on baseball, earning the nickname “Skip” for his high-school coaching prowess. A true student of the game, he loves crunching the numbers when he handicaps baseball.

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