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The Outlook Is Grimm For Texas Against Chicago

Posted by Dale "Skip" Lalonde on 5/1/2013 7:58:03 PM

In Thursday’s game between the Texas Rangers and the Chicago White Sox, a fascinating pitching matchup will unfold, one matching a young upstart against a proven veteran.

Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers – Thursday, May 2
Sport betting line: No line

Why Chicago Will Win

When the best online betting sites tackle this clash, they will lean to Chicago for a few reasons pertaining to the pitching matchup. Yes, Texas starter Justin Grimm has certainly been impressive to this point in the season, but he has made only three starts this season and only five in his very young career. Grimm is beginning to establish patterns that will make him easier to read as he goes along. More and more of a scouting report is being developed on him, a “book” that can be used by opposing hitters.

This is a fairly common flow of events with respect to a young and promising pitcher: He might become great in due time, and he starts off strongly when he’s a mystery to opposing hitters. In his first full season of action, though, hitters begin to figure him out. A good pitcher adjusts and displays enough quality to solve hitters in response, but there is generally a bump in the road for a young pitcher before he becomes a consistent force in Major League Baseball.

Grimm has more good days ahead of him, but in the next few weeks, he is likely to regress to the mean and experience a comedown. Chicago can ambush him in this specific spot.

The other reason to take the White Sox here is that they have a pitcher who is a proven veteran, a long-term survivor in the profession. Jake Peavy is a known quantity in baseball, one who flourished with the San Diego Padres and has been entirely solid in the American League (a tougher place for a pitcher to ply his trade) with the Pale Hose.

Peavy’s ERA is more than twice Grimm’s ERA, but that’s a function of more starters and more familiarity on the part of hitters. Peavy is still in a position to contain Texas’ batting order in this contest.

Why Texas Will Win

This is not quite poker, but at this point, Justin Grimm is getting all the right hands. He is winning big – not at the table, but on the baseball diamond. Perhaps this is a case of a young kid getting lucky in a game made for veterans, but right now, big-league hitters have not yet adjusted to this new presence on the mound for Texas.
Grimm has allowed three earned runs in 17 innings of work, creating an ERA of under 1.60. He has shown command of his pitches each time he’s taken the bump, and since Chicago has a lineup that – while proficient at hitting home runs – does not take many walks and does not display much of any patience at the plate, Grimm can continue to succeed in this tilt against the White Sox.

Who Will Win

The odds will catch up to Justin Grimm at some point, but not in this game. Chicago just isn’t a patient team, one that is likely to exploit Grimm’s youth. Texas should be able to prevail in this contest.

MLB Betting Pick: Texas

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