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MLB Betting Trends - Boston's nosedive is more than just a slump

Posted by Dale "Skip" Lalonde on 4/24/2012 9:39:11 AM
MLB oddsMLB betting trends vary in their significance. In the grand scheme of sportsbook futures, for example, the Houston Astros’ streak last month meant next to nothing. However, this week’s topic of discussion is serious business: What’s wrong with the Red Sox? Their six-game losing streak last week included a sweep at the hands of the Yankees.


MLB betting trends: Boston’s rotation has worn thin

  • Lineup lacks the serious pop it had in the Manny/Papi glory days
  • Injuries have crippled the starting rotation
  • Failure to acquire pitching help before the trade deadline will haunt them


Boston’s World Series odds were rock-solid across MLB betting circles at the start of the season. Bettors loved what they saw in Boston’s opening-day roster. However, the simple truth is that the Red Sox haven’t become what they projected to be on paper.

Offensively, David Ortiz temporarily shook his horrific slump, but he’s back to stinking up the joint and it appears he can’t be counted on down the stretch. Jason Bay was an MVP candidate in the first half but has tanked since then. He’s more likely to bounce back given his strong statistical history in August and September. Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are playing well but haven’t matched the lofty standards they set last year.

Overall, the Boston’s downward MLB betting trends aren’t truly tied to the offense. The Manny/Papi era is over, but the lineup is still deep. Victor Martinez adds a new presence in the middle of the order and Mike Lowell still contributes big hits when he’s healthy enough to play.

The big problem for the Red Sox is pitching. They were thought to have the American League’s top rotation as of April, with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Smoltz and Brad Penny/Tim Wakefield. However, only Beckett and Lester have panned out. They form a dynamite tandem that could help Boston win a short series like the best-of-five ALDS. However, the rotation is shaky as can be after that. Daisuke and Tim Wakefield are rotting on the DL. The John Smoltz experiment failed miserably. Callup Clay Buchholz doesn’t look ready for the majors.

Suddenly, Boston’s lack of rotation depth looks like an Achilles heel. You have to wonder if the package Theo Epstein sent to Cleveland for Victor Martinez would’ve been better spent on another Indian – Cliff Lee.

Can you really bet against Boston’s sports betting odds going forward? It doesn’t feel right, as they always seem to find a way into the playoffs. However, if they do reach the postseason, they probably don’t have the horses to beat the Yankees or Angels. Remember that when examining Beantown’s MLB betting trends going forward.

For more MLB betting trends and general betting advice, keep reading the Betting Edge at betonline.com.

Before his arm flamed out, Dale “Skip” Lalonde was famous for his high-90s heat and power at the plate. He retired young but never turned his back on baseball, earning the nickname “Skip” for his high-school coaching prowess. A true student of the game, he loves crunching the numbers when he handicaps baseball.

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